The 6th Annual Oscar-Pick-A-Palooza With Adam Howard

Film blogger extraordinaire Adam Howard are back at it with our sixth annual Oscar-Pick-A-Palooza.  I can't believe another year has passed, but here we are.  We've been emailing back and forth for the past month and have our picks for all the top Oscar categories.

Adam:  I'm kind of bleh -- like 50% happy 50% mad, 200% like this is what I expected. It's so fascinating to me how there's just these narratives that everyone accepts and like therefore Ethan Hawke doesn't get one for the BEST performance of his career. 

Brian:  I'm actually floored by these nominations.  Sure, the Golden Globes always seem to nominate films and actors to get "stars" into the room on event night.  Look at Johnny Depp being nominated for Mordecai.  I always take their winners with a grain of salt because, while an enjoying show, the Globes are never really a metric to rely on.  However, I'm seeing a weird trend this year.  Like you've said, for whatever reason (and I'm searching for answers), these are the films that have been settled upon.  We've got Vice (63% Rotten Tomatoes & 61 Metacritic score) , Bohemian Rhapsody (62% RT & 49% MC), and Green Book (82% & 70% MC) lurking all over these nominations.  Are they front runners?  Are we headed for a Best Picture winner that's worse than the infamous Crash debacle?  I can't recall a weirder year for movies than 2018, but here we are.    Like I said, #OscarsSoWTF.  Anything can happen. The Oscars have no host.  Major cinematic achievements are getting the cold shoulder and a superhero movie has cracked the list for Best Picture (even though the stars and director got left out in the cold)  Speaking of snubs... For the first time I can remember, I can honestly say that it feels like there's legitimate and baffling snubs in each category... and not just because of an odd person out type situation.  Hollywood has a chance to nominate some fresh and exciting performances that, in a banner year for films, wouldn't get recognized.  Instead, they played it safe again.  We'll get to those during the picks, as well as who we think will and should win.  Both of our best of 2018 lists are out and for the most part we enjoyed the same crop of movies.  As always, you've seen way more of these than I have, but our lists are pretty close.  Welcome back to the 6th (!) edition of our Oscar Pick-A-Palooza.  Let's get after it.

Our first category is Best Supporting Actor.  I feel like there's a giant sized Black Panther hole here, which will be a recurring theme throughout this back and forth.  Sam Rockwell was another surprise to me.  Dubya was portrayed better and more sincerely by Josh Brolin in Oliver Stone's movie.  I believe you called it a above average in your Daily Beast article.  I'm glad to see Sam Elliott finally break through with a nomination for his emotional "brother of an addict on his last straw" performance in A Star Is Born.  It was weird to see Mahershala Ali in as a supporting actor in what was essentially a co-lead performance in Green Book.  Adam Driver was great in BlacKkKlansman, but it hurts to see the heart and soul of that movie, John David Washington, left out.  

Here are the nominees:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, "BlackKKlansman"

Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"

Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"

Sam Rockwell, "Vice"

Who Will Win: Honestly, I don't know.  I feel like Green Book will Crash (see what I did there?) its way into the winner's circle, so I'm going with Ali.

Who Should Win: Of the people nominated, I'm going to go with Sam Elliott.  He deserves it for the scene in which Bradley Cooper's character tells him that he admired Elliott's character his hole life alone, but he was so good throughout.

Snub/Surprise:  The answer here is, of course, Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther.  There hasn't been a better, more developed superhero villain performance than Killmonger in Black Panther.  I'm also going to throw out anyone in First Man for this.  I'm still completely bewildered by the complete lack of Oscar love for First Man.  It has all the ingredients (Oscar favorite director?  Check.  Stellar cast?  Check.  Biopic?  Check.) to score a ton of nominations and yet it fell flat.

Who takes home your Supporting Actor statue?

Adam:  I don't disagree with your assessment at all. I think it's just that at this point I'm so used to being disappointed by Oscar nominees that I am almost more surprised when they get it right -- like with Moonlight a couple years ago. This year, it seemed like more than ever certain movies were crowned early, and several strongly reviewed releases (like First Man, which I also really loved) were just never given a chance to get any traction. 

I guess it'll be a more exciting year than most results-wise, since it doesn't feel like there is any definitive front-runner in a lot of the categories, including Best Picture. I was of course pleased to see my favorite movie of the year, Black Panther, got recognized, even if it wasn't as honored as I would have liked. And it's a pleasure to finally see Spike Lee honored as a Best Director nominee ever -- which is insane -- and marks the first time black directors were nominated for two years in a row. Unfortunately some strong work by several female directors like Lynne Ramsey (You Were Never Really Here) were completely ignored.

This year felt like one step forward (The Favourite) and two steps back (Vice and based on what I've heard, Bohemian Rhapsody). There are a handful of the big nominees I haven't seen like The Wife and Cold War, but I have a decent sense of how they'll fare. At the end of the day the two nominations I wanted to see the most -- Ryan Coogler for Best Director and Michael B. Jordan for Best Supporting Actor -- didn't happen. And so I'm left to root for mostly films and people who likely going to come up empty handed.

Of the folks who did make the cut -- I'm mostly fine with the choices with the exception of Rockwell, who is barely in Vice and who pushed out meatier, more compelling performances. 

Will win: Mahershala Ali.  He has managed to stay about the fray when it comes to the controversies and backlash surrounding Green Book (a film I've avoided). He's a fantastic actor, and I hear the best thing in the film. The one thing maybe working against him is that he just won two years ago, but that didn't stop a recent repeat winner like Christoph Waltz

Should win: Sam Elliott. Of these final contenders, I think his performance was the most effective and really elevated the movie he was in. I too quite liked Adam Driver's work in BlacKkKlansman, he's a great, underrated actor who will be a contender for years. And Richard E. Grant was very good in a role he was born to play, but this feels like the best part of Elliott's career. It'd be cool to see him win for it.

Snubs/Surprises: It mystifies me that Michael B. Jordan has still never been Oscar nominated. It's not like he has a bad reputation. This is the third unforgivable snub in a row after Fruitvale Station and Creed. Hopefully, someday soon he'll get his due. If Widows had hit bigger, it might have been possible for Daniel Kaluuya's bone-chilling villain from that movie to make it. And I know this isn't a widely held opinion, but I really thought Sylvester Stallone was just as moving in Creed II as he was in the first one.

Adam:  I'll get us started on the next category -- the one almost always seems like a foregone conclusion (ever noticed that?) -- Best Supporting Actress. As per usual, there were an embarrassment of riches in terms of great female supporting performances, although quite a few, also as per usual were overlooked.

Here are the nominees:

Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

I think the malaise I feel about this year's awards reflects just a lack of imagination on their part. Sure more unconventional movies like Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are in the mix, but then there are a lot nominations that feel like gimmes -- like Amy Adams in Vice. Don't get me wrong -- I love Amy Adams and hope she wins one eventually, but this role isn't worthy of a nom, I'm sorry.

But, other than that one I don't have a lot of quibbles with this list. Marina de Tavira got in surprisingly for her very effecting performance in Roma, which squeezed out the anticipated nod for Claire Foy, who really was excellent in First Man -- totally upending the cliched astronaut wife role. And I was thrilled to see the double nom of stars from The Favourite -- one of my favorite movies of the year. I don't know how that movie is going to do overall -- it's way too dark and quirky to win any of the big ones. But I digress.

Who will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Can Talk

Everyone loves her, rightfully so. She's one of those people that everyone presumes MUST have won an Oscar by now. True story I once won a $50 bet with a boss of mine, years ago, over whether she had ever even been nominated (she hasn't). She's taken most precursor awards and is a warm and lovely presence in the movie -- probably the most grounded, accessible thing about it,

Who should win: Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk

This is a closer call for me that you might think. If Emma Stone hadn't just won for La La Land, I might be rooting for her in this category, because I think this is the performance of her career to date. I'd call it Gravity syndrome -- someone wins for a far inferior role (think Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side) and then lose for a much better performance years later that actually was worthy of a victory (think Sandra Bullock in Gravity). And Rachel Weisz is her equal in probably the least showy role of the three Favourite leads. But both actresses have trophies (Weisz won for The Constant Gardner, again, I think the Gravity syndrome applies there, too) and King is long overdo (she's the BEST thing in Jerry Maguire, seriously).

Snubs/Surprises: Rather a lot really. Claire Foy, for sure. I loved First Man, and like you and mystified as to why audiences and awards shows didn't. Foy was the one part no one seemed to have an issue with but alas no Foy. I also think that Nicole Kidman deserved consideration for her terrific work in Boy Erased (And Russell Crowe was great too, should have mentioned him in the supporting column). 

There was some talk of Emily Blunt getting in for A Quiet Place, but I figured she'd get in for Mary Poppins Returns, she got neither and I was bummed because she was stellar in both. Something tells me she will eventually get her Glenn Close consolation Oscar.

For all the -- well deserved -- hype around Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, I was always mystified as to why there was never any talk of nominated Letitia Wright for her role as Shuri. Certainly, it was more of a comedic role, but she stole every scene she was in and ended up being a real iconic character, too.

Brian:  Ha!  I would have lost that bet with you because I, like your old boss, assumed that she had already been nominated.  I also forgot that she was in Jerry Maguire, but now I can't get her out of my mind from that one (in a good way!).  I do like your Gravity syndrome as it happens a lot (look at Martin Scorcese finally winning for The Departed.).  Hell, look at Leo DiCaprio winning for The Revenant.  I also agree that this category has historically felt like a foregone conclusion, with this year being no different.  

I'm also in agreement with you on how this category has 4 strong performances and a meh Amy Adams nomination that probably should have gone to someone more imaginative.  We're on the same page with this year being, for the most part, the "play it safe" Oscars.

Who Will Win:  Regina King.  She's cleaning up in the lead up to the Oscars and I have no reason to believe this one will be any different.

Who Should Win:  I haven't seen The Favourite, so I can't speak on that, so if it's not going to be King, I'd go with Marina De Tavira.  Maybe I have a soft spot for strong single mothers (since I came from one), but I was absolutely floored by her performance as a woman trying her best to keep a straight face in the middle of a marriage meltdown.

Snuts/Surprises:  While I really liked Letitia Wright in Black Panther, I'd go with Danai Gurira for her performance as the badass warrior, Okoye.  I'm seeing Boy Erased next week, and I can't wait to see Kidman's performance in it.

Up next, Best Actor...

Brian:  The Best Actor category is puzzling to me.  And this is where I base my #OscarsSoWTF hashtag.  How can an actor (Ethan Hawke) that's currently doing very well in the pre-Oscar run-up be completely left out?  His performance in First Reformed is not only one of the year's best... it's a career defining role!  I just don't get it.  I'm puzzled at the other nominations.  We've seen a body transforming performance from Christian Bale before Vice, so I'm not all that jazzed about this one.  Rami Malek is the presumptive front runner for his take on the late, great Freddie Mercury, and  yet, I can't help but wonder what that film (and performance) would have looked like had Sasha Baron Cohen not dropped out.  I'm glad that Bradley Cooper is getting some love for his performance (even though he got snubbed as a director).  I can't really speak on Willem Dafoe's performance, though I've heard good things.  

I feel like there is a laundry list of actors who have a genuine beef as to why they were left out.  Anyway, on to the nominations...

Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)  

Who Will Win:  Rami Malek.  The Oscars love a music biopic (see: Foxx, Jamie & Witherspoon, Reese), and Malek seems poised to take home this one.  I haven't seen the movie yet, but I heard he does a really good job portraying Mercury.  

Who Should Win:  Anyone but Viggo Mortensen!  Of the people nominated, I'd go with Bradley Cooper.  He's delivered a string of Oscar quality performances and I think he gave a genuinely moving performance in A Star Is Born.  I thought this film would clean up, but it seems to be more of an afterthought this year.  Speaking of afterthoughts... what the hell happened with First Man???  I thought Ryan Gosling was a lock for this category, but the voters seem to have passed this film by.  Robert Redford's (supposed) final acting role was overlooked as well.  Finally, John David Washington deserved a nomination for BlacKkKlansman.

Snubs/Surprises:  Hawke.  It's not even close.  

Who ya got?

Adam:  This was the category (and perhaps Best Picture, too) that I think most people were really frustrated with, and rightfully so. Besides Hawke, who I agree gave a career-best performance -- one of the most memorable of the year -- in the criminally under-appreciated First Reformed, there were several other performances I'd like to see here instead of the ones that are here.

I actually disagree with you the Rami Malek is the front-runner. I might have thought so two weeks ago, but the recently resurrected allegations against Bryan Singer, which were exhaustively explored in a recent article in The Atlantic. In the wake of this piece, which makes a compelling case that Singer has been sexually abusing young men and boys for decades -- there have been a lot of pointed questions about what did Malek know and when did he know it. He's claimed he was unaware of Singer's reputation when he took on the role of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody -- but a lot of folks are calling B.S. on that.

Aside from that, despite its blockbuster grosses, the movie has a mixed-to-bad reception and even though Malek is widely seen as the best part of the film (I haven't seen it yet, so I can't judge), I think the whole production has become to problematic to embrace in any way. But, I could be wrong.

I hear a lot of folks saying Bale is the lock to win, which seems even stranger to me. He's terrific in Vice, a movie that I have a lot of issues with. But he's already won for The Fighter and I can't remember someone winning Best Actor for a movie as critically divisive as that one, although the academy clearly liked it because they nominated it for a boatload of top honors, including Best Picture and Director. So maybe he's got a real shot.

No one has seen At Eternity's Gate, literally no one. I think it doesn't exist. We all love Willem Dafoe, it's a travesty that he doesn't have an Oscar. He should have won for The Florida Project, and hopefully he'll get one someday. But it ain't happening. I'm sure Viggo Mortenson is good in Green Book, and he's also due, but that movie also feels too toxic to reward, especially in this category featuring its white star.

Who will win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born ... All of which leads me to the guy who for most of the year I was reading was a practical guarantee to win for Best Actor. He's been nominated a bunch of times and never won, and this is arguably the best performance of his career. I'm not sure how this movie and this performance sort of faded away for people... I don't know if the movie peaked too early. But since he was snubbed for Director and this was very much his (and Lady Gaga's) achievement -- I think they'll find a way to reward him and the movie here.

Who should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born - I say this with the caveat that many of the best leading man performances from this year were totally snubbed. I haven't seen Malek, Dafoe and Mortenson's work -- so I could be wrong -- but it feels like a worthy victory for Cooper.

Snubs/Surprises - Where to begin here. Again, Ethan Hawke in First Reformed is the most shocking one. I really would have loved to see Robert Redford get in for his career capping performance in The Old Man & The Gun, sadly it looks like he'll never get an acting Oscar in his career. I think Clint Eastwood gave a wonderful comic performance tinged with melancholy in The Mule. It would have been cool to recognize John David Washington's subtle work in BlacKkKlansman or Joaquin Phoenix's haunted performance in You Were Never Really Here.

Brian:  I'm sticking with my Malek front runner prediction... especially after he took home the SAG award last night.  I think the Singer accusations, while horrible, are too late to derail his momentum.  We'll see.

Speaking of front runners... we're on to the next category... Best Actress.  I think this category is practically a one person race, which I'll get to in my predictions.  I also think that the academy generally got it right  with this category.  A case could be made for Emily Blunt's joyous performance in Mary Poppins Returns, but was she that much better than the other women nominated?  I'm not so sure.  I'm really glad that Yalitza Aparicio got the nod for her quiet yet brilliant performance in Roma.  Before the pre-Oscar run-up,  I thought Lady Gaga was a shoo-in to win this one.  However, it looks like this one's a lock for Glenn Close.  Speaking of pre-Oscar run-up, these award shows steal all the fun and surprise from the Oscars.  We basically know who is going to win ahead of time.  I think it's a large reason why people are turning away from watching the Oscars.  I know I'm less interested in watching the ceremony than I was even a couple years ago.  Perhaps the Oscars should look into moving the ceremony ahead of the SAG, PGA, Golden Globes, etc.?

Here are the nominees:

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)  

Who Will Win:  Glenn Close.  This category feels like a coronation for Close.  She's cleaning up so far and I see no reason that the Oscars will be any different.  It would be a nice topper to a brilliant career.

Who Should Win:  I haven't seen The Wife yet, so by all accounts Glenn Close deserves all the accolades coming her way.  However, I was absolutely blown away by Yalitza Aparicio in Roma.  She deserves it for the birthing scene (and I don't want to spoil it for anyone) alone, which was one of the most emotionally intense scenes I've seen in a movie in a long time.  Lady Gaga also gave a great performance in A Star Is Born, but I feel like Bradley Cooper had the meatier role.  Gaga tied with Close at the PGA awards, so there's a chance she could win the Oscar.

Snubs/Surprises:  I know the Academy generally stays away from "weird" sci-fi, but Annihilation was my favorite movie of the year and I'm upset at the lack of Oscar love it received.  I know her role wasn't as showy as some of her other previously nominated roles (Black Swan and Jackie), but I loved Natalie Portman in Annihilation and would have liked to have seen her name included.  

Are we in agreement with this one?

Adam:  This was a very solid group to be sure. I guess the only surprise was that Yalitza Aparicio got in -- and that wasn't too huge a surprise, since she is the heart and soul of Roma. I do think this is  -- probably -- the one forgone conclusion of the night in a year that is weirdly unpredictable. For instance, does last night's SAG win for Best Cast now make Black Panther the front-runner now? I don't know.

The precursor thing can be weird to be sure, and I guess SAG is a better indicator than most. For me, I don't usually watch the Oscars in suspense. I just like moving acceptance speeches -- they always get me and I think the winner of this category will deliver a doozy.

I do know that you're right that Glenn Close has emerged as the clear front-runner. Lady Gaga was really remarkable in A Star Is Born, a part -- forgive me -- she was 'born' to play. I think she'll probably have to prove herself again like Cher did in Moonstruck after her initial nomination for Silkwood before the academy fully embraces her. I also think her consolation prize will be the Best Song category -- and she will be well on her way to I'm sure will be an inevitable EGOT. Everyone else, though terrific, will have to wait their turn. 

Aparcio is a great discovery and will hopefully get more opportunities. Melissa McCarthy was very good in a movie I had some quibbles with and in a role that was hard to make even a little sympathetic. I haven't seen The Wife, but I've always been a Close fan, so I'm intrigued. But I am all about Olivia Coleman this year. More on that in a sec.

Who will win: Glenn Close, The Wife. Close has clearly been gunning for the Oscar for decades now. Her last attempt with 2012's Albert Nobbs came up short but this year feels different. She's been so great for so long -- that Golden Globes speech just sealed it. And I'm happy for her. She's so terrific in roles as wildly different as Fatal Attraction and The Natural. Looks like seventh time is the charm.

Who should win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite. I don't know about 'should' -- all of these people are worthy (unlike Best Actor) -- I just have to go with the performance I enjoyed the most and that would be Coleman's tour-de-force work in The Favourite. She's alternately funny, pathetic, sad, tragic, manipulative and doomed. It's a really amazing piece of work and I hope she continues to get juicy parts like this.

Snubs/Surprises - This is a pretty stacked category but I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't have been thrilled if Toni Collette had made it in for Hereditary or if Viola Davis got in for Widows. For a while, it looked like Emily Blunt would be nominated for her luminous movie star performance in Mary Poppins Returns. But yeah, this is a hard group to find fault with. At least Meryl Streep isn't in there for the 100th time (and don't get me wrong, I love her).

Brian:  We're in the home stretch with only two categories to go.  Up next, we have Best Director, which is a category that's in a bit of an odd predicament.  They've expanded the Best Picture nominees to 10, but have kept the directors at 5 nominees.  This has lead to its fair share of snubs and surprises in recent years (most notably Ben Affleck missing a nomination for eventual Best Picture Argo).  I've also noticed a trend in split Best Picture/Director winners.  Whereas these two categories used to go hand in hand, we've seen a split in recent years.  After a discussion with my co-worker, I've changed my mind on this as well.  I used to lump the Best Picture and Director together because I felt that a Best Picture had to be the best directed film.  However, my coworker is a much more visual person and he likens directing to being able to tell a story without a script.  He places shot selection and imagery as a more important part of directing than the plot.  Honestly, I can see it both ways.  If you look at The Revenant, that was a beautifully directed movie, but not necessarily the best movie of the year.  Same with Gravity, The Life of Pi, etc.

I could see a split scenario occurring this year, especially if Black Panther uses its SAG momentum to catapult it to a Best Picture win.  The only directing nod that I could see ending up with Best Picture is Roma, so this is a very interesting category... with a few glaring snubs.

Here are the nominees:  

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)  

Who Will Win:  I'm torn on this.  I think that Alfonso Cuaron will win for his epic-in-scale, yet personal in story film, Roma.  However, he's already won for Gravity, and I don't see Roma with a ton of momentum going in to these Oscars.  It could be the film that ends up cleaning up in the "lesser" categories, but fails to notch any of the big awards.  I think that Spike Lee might just pull this one off for his long overdue nomination for BlacKkKlansman.  Is it his best film?  No.  However, I would liken this to Scorcese finally winning for The Departed.  Maybe it's just the time for Spike Lee.

Who Should Win:  Again, it's between Cuaron and Lee for me.  I wouldn't be disappointed if either won.  Same with Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite.  

Snubs/Surprises:  My two biggest snubs are Ryan Coogler for Black Panther and Alex Garland for Annihilation.  Coogler basically turns everything he touches in to gold and I'm really upset he was left out here.  Would he have been included if they had expanded the directing field?  Probably.  That Adam McKay nomination really chaps my ass because there were much more deserving people left out.  Alex Garland may be the most underrated director working today.  He's Denis Villeneuve without the critical acclaim.  Yeah, he makes "weird" sci-fi movies, something the Academy has never really warmed up to, but he's a hell of a director and someone I hope people come around to more as his career progresses.

Who takes home your top directing award?

Adam:  I thought this was perhaps the most underwhelming category besides Best Actor. I guess the biggest surprise was Pawel Pawilkowski for Cold War, which I haven't seen, but is supposed to be terrific. The lack of female nominees is glaring as is the lack of recognition for directors whose films have made it into the Best Picture race. I agree there are a lot of glaring snubs, although of course as a longtime Spike Lee fan, it is nice to see him finally recognized after all these years. I am not someone who gets hung up on whether someone wins for the best movie or best performance. I love The Departed, so I'm fine with Scorsese winning for that and I thought BlacKkKlansman was a great comeback movie for Lee, even though he should have been nominated and won for Do the Right Thing 30 years ago.

Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron. That being said I think with some major would-be contenders like Bradley Cooper on the sidelines, I think Cuaron has this locked up. He seems to be cleaning up in the precursor awards, and his semi-autobiographical film is very much his personal vision. He has already won once -- deservedly -- for Gravity, and this epic film further demonstrates his skill and range. I always like to see the wealth spread around at the Oscars (I was bummed when Inarritu won two years in a row), but I think few will quibble with this result.

Who should win: This is tough one for me too. I have immense respect for Cuaron and I'd love to see Spike Lee win, but my favorite film represented in this category is ironically The Favourite, so I'm gonna go with Yorgos Lanthimos, a filmmaker I have not totally embraced until now. His bleak, darkly comic style grated on me in the past but I thought this film got the balance of darkness and light just right and I think his film is the best directed of this bunch.

Snubs/Surprises: For me its gotta be Ryan Coogler. Black Panther would have been just another superhero movie without him and he imbued that movie with so much style and sophistication, it's just a travesty that he was never a real contender here. I actually think Bradley Cooper deserved to get in for A Star Is Born, a wonderful and moving re-interpretation of a classic showbiz tale. I haven't been singing First Man's praises as much as I've meant to but for me Damian Chazelle demonstrated with that movie that he is too good to ignore. Lynne Ramsey did excellent work on You Were Never Really Here. The Coens did more effortlessly great work with The Ballad of Buster Scuggs. But, I'm just glad Peter Farrelly and Bryan Singer didn't get in for fairly obvious reasons.

Brian:  I, too, am glad that Peter Farrelly and Bryan Singer didn't get nominated.  Singer's fall from grace is a real disappointment to me because 1) his alleged actions are so despicable and 2) I've really enjoyed his films.  I get separating the art from the artist, but it's really hard to watch his films anymore.  The Usual Suspects, which is one of my favorite movies of all-time, now has the added Singer stink on top of it in addition to Kevin Spacey.  Yeah, there were rumblings about Singer before, but they were never really this loud.

OK, moving on to our final category: Best Picture.  This ties in to my previous statement because we have a Singer directed (but not finished) film in Bohemian Rhapsody.  A film that I said in my initial email that's a in the 50s as far as critical praise, and yet might actually win this thing.  That, coupled with Vice and its 60% rating, could lead us to the worst critically praised Best Picture winner of all-time.  I'm not sure it happens, but there's a chance and that is totally weird to me.  This category is another WTF category with some major snubs and surprises.  On the good side, we're living in year 10-11 of The Dark Knight rule and we finally have our first superhero movie nominated for Best Picture (Black Panther).  We've got a Spike Lee movie getting love (BlacKkKlansman) in a way that we haven't seen with one of his films in years.  We've also got another signature Alfonso Cuaron masterpiece (Roma), which signaled Netflix's emergence as a legitimate awards season player.  However, I can't get past all the stinkers in this category (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book) that are here at the expense of other, better films.  This category is allowed to go up to ten films, and yet we don't have a full slate of nominees.  I honestly don't understand this rule and its criteria for getting films nominated.

Here are the nominees:

Black Panther 
BlacKkKlansman 
Bohemian Rhapsody 
The Favourite 
Roma 
Green Book
A Star Is Born 
Vice

Who Will Win:  Honestly, it's anyone's guess.  We saw Black Panther jump up the list after its SAG upset.  I also can't shake this feeling that Bohemian Rhapsody has a chance, warts and all.  If I had to guess, I would go with Roma or A Star Is Born.  Roma is a note perfect film that shows you don't need a "big" story to make a sprawling epic.  A Star Is Born is a great film that I thought would make a bigger splash than it has.

Who Should Win:  Black Panther was an epic film with rich and complex characters and a great story to boot.  If we're ever going to see a superhero movie win Best Picture, this is the year.

Snubs/Surprises:  Where do I begin?  First Man and Hereditary have legitimate claims for those final two spots.  Both were critical darlings that somehow just didn't connect with audiences at the Box Office.  I feel like we'll be talking about Hereditary the same way we do other classic horror films in 10-15 years.  Eighth Grade somehow didn't get the Lady Bird quirky comedy slot like last year.  First Reformed was another major snub that was inexplicably overlooked in this and other categories.  For me, the biggest snub was Annihilation, my favorite movie of 2018.  I've seen it a few times and each time I get something more out of it.  I know the Academy typically overlooks "weird" sci-fi system, but I really wish it wouldn't.  I was hooked from the moment I saw this film, and I really wish it received more recognition for the masterpiece I believe it to be.

So there you have it.  Who takes home your top prize?

Finally, thanks again for doing this with me.  I really enjoy it and I can't believe we're already in year 6 of this.  

Adam:  Yeah I am still a fan of The Usual Suspects,  but there's no doubt that its legacy has taken a beating. And oddly enough, despite the widely reported, credible allegations against him, he's somehow managed to be signed on to direct a remark of the Schwarzenegger cult film Red Sonja. I'll never understand why people like him and Mel Gibson keep getting second, third and fourth chances while others are rightfully pushed off-stage for good.

On a more positive note, I think last year was a great year for films and I saw a lot of work that really inspired me and moved me -- for instance, Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse was such a euphoric cinematic experience for me that it truly lifted my spirits and restored my faith in the future of movies.  That'd being said I don't feel a lot of 2018's best were represented in the Best Picture category. I agree that Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody are two of the worst reviewed nominees since they expanded the category (I think the worst rated ever was the forgettable Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close). I disagree, however, with your belief that either of them can win. I could see four maybe even five of these movies winning the big prize.

I think Black Panther has a lot of momentum off the SAG win but perhaps the academy will say a nomination is enough of a reward for a superhero film. I think BlackKklansman could be a sentimental favorite -- its weirdly very topical thanks to Virginia's blackface scandal -- and if Spike Lee were to pull off an upset, it could maybe take the top prize. A Star is Born could be this year's Argo, like you suggested before, since a lot of people think Bradley Cooper was snubbed for Best Director, Green Book -- while polarizing as hell -- has been the safe choice for some time now -- and then there's Roma, which is widely being hailed as a cinematic achievement, but perhaps will suffer from its Netflix tie-in. Could it be the first Best Picture winner with virtually no theatrical grosses?

Who will win: Roma, It's really really close. I feel like this could have been A Star is Born's award to lose but it peaked too early. I think Black Panther would be amazing but I just think it'll suffer from not enough acting branch support. I think BlackKklansman has always been an also-ran in this competition. I love The Favourite to death but its too quirky to win. And I think neither Vice nor Bohemian Rhapsody is loved enough to win (remember the new system is tiered and preferential voting, so basically the movie the most people don't hate usually wins this). That leaves Green Book and Roma, and I find it hard to believe with all the controversy over its alleged whitewashing of history and cultural tonedeafness, I just don't see Hollywood endorsing it with their top prize. And I think Roma, as unconventional a picture as it is, has virtually no detractors. It's not my personal favorite of the year, but it is an unassailably worthy winner.

Who should win: Black Panther. This has always been very personal for me. As an African-American cinephile, this was the kind of movie I've always been waiting for. A sophisticated epic that had both the wit and world building of Star Wars but also the moral complexity of the Blade Runner films. Regardless of who wins, I believe this was THE movie of last year and certainly the one that has had the greatest cultural impact of any of the movies released in 2018. Wakanda forever!

Snubs/surprises: Again First Man has been criminally under-appreciated. Honestly, I wish Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse were taken seriously enough to be included, but Black Panther clearly already took up that lane. Eighth Grade was a magical movie, hopefully it'll become the cult classic it deserves to be. And I'm totally with you on Hereditary, such a great advance of the horror genre. And yeah I'd be happy to see First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Crazy Rich Asians, Annihilation, The Death of Stalin, You Were Never Really Here and A Quiet Place in place of Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody and/or Green Book, but that's just my two cents.

p.s. I neglected to mention it when we talked Best Actor, but I just want to give a shout out to Nicolas Cage and his performance in Mandy, as well as the movie itself. For obvious reasons, a movie as experimental, non-linear, gory and strange as that one never stood a chance of ever having any kind of awards consideration, but it was one of the most striking, unforgettable cinematic experiences i had all year, and I could see this one creeping into my top 10 when all is said and done.

p.p.s. Thanks for doing this too!