I'm fairly certain Annihilation is a modern sci-fi classic - that deserves multiple views

I just got out of Annihilation, though I still feel like I'm in it, and my initial thoughts were "welp, that's one of the best sci-fi movies I've seen in a long time."  It's trippy, heady and gorgeous.  It definitely makes you think, and warrants repeated viewings.  Though it is definitely not for general audiences.  In fact, a woman seated near me let out a big "huh?" as the credits started to roll.

I, however, can't get enough of this film.  It sweeps you up into its trance-like state and keeps you there long after you leave the theater.  I can't remember the last movie I saw that is staying with me quite like Annihilation.  Director Alex Garland (of Ex Machina fame) has created something that I hope will stand the test of time.

The details of this film are better seen than read.  Basically, a meteor-like object has crashed to earth.  This object has created The Shimmer, a terra-formed world that mutates and grows with equal parts beauty and horror.  Many have entered, but none have escaped.  There is a theme of the destructive nature of life and death prevalent throughout it, though I think this story also works on the surface level. 

There are some genuinely thrilling sequences within this film, but there are large stretches of the film that appear as if in slow-motion.  I guess it's why audiences aren't really racing in droves to the theater to see it.  Opening a week after the juggernaut that is Black Panther doesn't help its chances either.  The final third of this film hearkens back to great trippy sci-fi films like 2001: A Space Odyssey and Moon.  It's definitely NOT a typical blockbuster style action thriller, and that's why I like it so much.

Natalie Portman's character is the glue that bonds this film together.  She's equal parts tough and vulnerable.  Along with a band of strong, but flawed women, she leads them through The Shimmer to find the source of all this mystery.  The Shimmer is gradually expanding and threatens to destroy the entire world.  Though this film features mostly women, Oscar Isaac provides a pivotal supporting role to this story as Portman's character's husband.  I think what I liked most about these characters is that they were all strong people who just so happened to be women.  It's great to see a mainstream movie fronted by a strong group of women, where gender isn't what defines them.

I can't stress how much I enjoyed this film, and how disappointed I am that it's probably going to be remembered as a flop.  It was given a release date death slot and I can only hope that it gains traction once it's released on home video (Or is it home streaming?  Do they still call it home video?  I digress.).  I'm just glad that a studio took a chance on this film.  This movie is going to stick with me for a long, long time... and that's a good thing.  There's too many disposable stories being made, and Annihilation will hopefully go down as what it is, a classic.  4 out of 4 stars.

Darkest Hour doesn't offer anything new to the biopic genre

I went into Darkest Hour expecting to be blown away by it.  Gary Oldman is as close to an Oscar lock as there is in this year's race for best actor.  He's swept all the awards leading up to next week's big night.  However, as I was watching it, I was very underwhelmed.  Not so much by Oldman, who shockingly, has never won an Academy Award.  He was quite convincing and serviceable as Winston Churchill.  I think I was underwhelmed with the entire concept of the film.  

Darkest Hour portrays Churchill's first month as Prime Minister as the German threat is knocking on Britain's door.  It portrays him as a steadfast leader who knows that victory is the only answer.  His decisions are questioned at every turn as he races to rescue 400,000 soldiers from Dunkirk beach.

What this film doesn't do is add anything to the biopic genre.  It's a rather straightforward portrayal of a time and place that has had two better representations in recent memory.  Dunkirk, my personal favorite movie of 2017, shows the rescue of those soldiers in a riveting and original manner.  The Crown on Netflix also portrays Churchill in a similar manner.  Also, this film doesn't challenge the biopic format in a way that other, better films have done in recent years.  Steve Jobs, the criminally underrated film from Danny Boyle and Love & Mercy, the story of Brian Wilson both present historical figures in new and fresh ways.

I feel like if you're going to be considered a "masterpiece" as this film is being hailed as, you gotta come at me with something I've never seen before.  I'm all for Oldman winning best actor in a year in which there aren't standout performances.  However, 2017 saw two breakout performances that will stand the test of time.  Daniel Kaluuya in the breakout film of 2017, Get Out, and Timothée Chalame in Call Me By Your Name both are much more deserved.  Oldman's win feels more like a lifetime achievement award.  Again, I'm OK with that in a more traditional year.  Not in 2017.

Black Panther is a masterpiece

The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has for better or worse changed the landscape of American cinema.  Films cannot exist as a standalone experience anymore.  They have to fit into a larger cinematic experience of interconnected films and characters that may or may not lead to a team-up of said characters.  Call it the Avengers effect.  I get it... why make one film when you can make a million?  You see it everywhere.  Cloverfield gets a universe!  Transformers gets a universe!  Hell, we're getting a sequel to The Passion Of The Christ soon (POTC 2:  Christ Harder, I hope)!  The knock on the MCU is that the individual films have lost their voice.  They only serve as feeder films to the larger Avengers movies.  Directors are there to work under a strict set of guidelines and are almost interchangeable.  However, around the time of Thor: The Dark World, these films began to lose steam.  At that time, the MCU took a turn for the better.  Films like Guardians Of The Galaxy, Ant-Man and the most recent Thor film all felt like the work of a directors with distinct visions and voices.  Yes, they still fit into the larger MCU, but they all felt fresh and exciting.  With that being said, Black Panther (from extraordinary director Ryan Coogler) feels like the MCU's most realized voice yet.  It's a vibrant world full of rich and interesting characters that is an absolute treasure.  It will surely go down as one of, if not the best MCU films of all-time.  It will surely make my 2018 top-10, and I can't see many films knocking it out of the top 5.

Black Panther picks up where Captain America: Civil War leaves off.  Price T'Challa (played delightfully by the talented Chadwick Boseman) is the reluctant new king of Wakanda, a secret African Nation that possesses otherworldly technology.  He must choose whether or not to keep the nation of Wakanda secret from the world, or to help other nations with its technology and prowess.  It's basically this film's version of the Spider-Man "with great power comes great responsibility."  The nation of Wakanda is under attack from the nefarious Ulysses Klau (a terrific, albeit limited role played by Andy Serkis), who wants to take their wonder element, Vibranium, and sell it out to the highest bidder.  There is also a terrific, almost Shakespearean, story line involving long lost cousin (played with incredible gusto by the marvelous Michael B. Jordan), who wants to claim the crown for himself.  All these outside elements test the new king in a way that could shape the world forever.

Like I said previously, Black Panther is the work of one of best working directors today, Ryan Coogler.  It's as if Marvel gave him complete freedom to develop this world in a way that was unafforded to other directors in the MCU.  And their trust pays off.  From the music, to costumes, to the ancillary characters, there's nothing that gets slighted. My favorite character is T'Challa's sister, who almost acts as a Wakandan version of the Q branch in James Bond films.  The all-female warrior guards are a sight to behold as well.  Led by The Walking Dead's Danai Gurira, these warriors were a true delight.  Wakanda is as rich of a world as there's been in recent years.  Each character has a purpose and story that's important to the larger story.  And the action is top notch.  It's a world that happens to live inside the larger MCU, but also works on its own.  Its vibrancy is almost unparalleled in modern cinema.  I can't recommend Black Panther enough.

Black Panther is the first MCU masterpiece since the original Iron Man.  Ryan Coogler is on his way to becoming a top-tier Hollywood director.  His voice and vision is a refreshing addition to mainstream action blockbusters.  4 out of 4 stars.

Stay through the credits for the standard MCU advancing scenes.  I can't believe I still need to say this, but there were people leaving during the credits last night.

The 5th Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza featuring Adam Howard.

Howdy folks.  It's time, once again, for the best damn Oscar prediction article in the business.  For those unfamiliar, Adam Howard  and I take turns predicting the major Oscar categories.

BW:

Hi Adam,

Welcome back!  It's always great to trade Oscar picks with you, but this year marks a mini-milestone.  It's our 5th year of doing Oscar Predictions together.  So let's pop a bottle of champagne and jump right in, shall we?  Our Top 10 lists are out... the nominations are here... it's time to predict the future once again with my favorite film blogger.

2017 was an exceptional year for film.  There was quality all around, in both the art house and blockbuster genres.  From game changing thrillers (Get Out), to superheroes (Logan, Thor: Ragnarok, Wonder Woman), to your typical Oscar bait (The Post, Phantom Thread, etc.), 2017 was a great year for film.  It was also a year of earth shattering revelations about rampant sexual abuse throughout the industry.  Industry titans fell (Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey), and I feel like we're only scratching the surface with the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements.  We're seeing it in these nominations.  James Franco, once a lock for an acting nomination, was shut out.  Christopher Plummer was nominated for, seemingly, not being Kevin Spacey.  We also don't seem to have a clear frontrunner for Best Picture/Director like we've had in years past.  I am very much looking forward to the big show this year.

For those unfamiliar with how these picks work, Adam and I will go through each category and pick who will win and who we think should win.  I'm switching up our normal third category (dark horse) with the biggest snuband/or surprise.  I feel like with the deluge of pre-Oscar awards, most of the nominations come down to one or two choices.  There hasn't really been a true dark horse in awhile, so let's concentrate on who we felt should have been nominated, or something who was nominated that may not have been as deserving as someone else.

First up... Best Supporting Actress.  Here's the nominees:

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Will Win:  Allison Janney - I've been a huge fan of Janney since her West Wing days (my favorite show of all-time.).  And she is, by all accounts, an absolute delight in this film.  She's taken some early awards and I think she wins this one.

Should Win:  This is a tough one, because like it could be a coin flip between Janney and Laurie Metcalf for her wonderful performance in Lady Bird.  I'll be happy if either of these nominations win.

Snub/Surprise:  I know you've mentioned Mary J. Blige in previous emails, so I'll let you tough on that.  For me, the biggest snub was Holly Hunter in The Big Sick.  She gave, in my opinion, the best performance in that delightful dramedy.  I'm a bit surprised she got left out.

What do you think?

AH:

Couldn't agree more with your summation of a very tumultuous and interesting year at the movies. Hollywood is ever-so-slowly starting to get it in terms of the problems in its culture, and yet still have a very long way to go. Still, by-and-large this past year was refreshingly good. The blockbusters were a little smarter (with some notable exceptions ... hopefully we've seen the last of the Pirates and Transformers franchises) and the awards caliber movies were a more eclectic bunch than usual. Among the Best Pictures nominees, only Darkest Hour and The Post feel like your parents' prestige pictures, but I digress.

This year's Best Supporting Actress contenders was pretty much what a lot of people were predicting, with the pleasant surprise of Lesley Manville sneaking in for a terrific performance in Phantom Thread over Holly Hunter in The Big Sick. I loved Hunter's performance but she's been honored many times before and won the Best Actress prize for The Piano, so I am cool with the new blood.

Will Win:  Allison Janney, she's great in I, Tonya but most importantly it's the showiest role in the bunch. She gives a big, broad, scene-stealing performance in a movie a lot of people really like and are bummed to see outside the Best Picture race. She's been cleaning up all awards season and to your point has a lot of fans and good will from her West Wing days. Sometimes, these categories produce a surprise winner but other than Metcalf, who is also similarly beloved by her peers, I don't see anyone upsetting her.

Should Win:  I like Octavia Spencer a lot but she did nothing she hasn't done before in The Shape of Water. Mary J. Blige didn't really register for me as anything special in Mudbound. I think Lesley Manville's nomination is her reward, she's great, but her film is breaking too late to steal this. So to me its between Metcalf and Janney. I actually think Metcalf has the harder role, they both play domineering mothers, but Janney's is more one note and comedic, whereas Metcalf has to play her part more grounded and nuanced. So I would give to Metcalf by a nose.

Snub/Surprise:  There were a lot of potentially great outside the box choices they could have made here. For instance, there are times where this category can feel like 'the place where we recognize black women' -- but for me an African-American woman who deserved to be here was the great Betty Gabriel from Get Out, who was chilling, sad and funny in a small but unforgettable turn as the 'housemaid' from hell. Also from that same film Alison Williams was a standout. Hell, I'd love to see the Oscars pay tribute to the late Carrie Fisher, who finally got to be the baller leader she was born to be in her last film, The Last Jedi.

BW:

I completely hear you about Betty Gabriel delivering a chilling and unforgettable performance that is worthy of some recognition.  Her "No, no, no, no, no..." scene will go down in the annals of cinema.  And it's a shame that Carrie Fisher's only Oscar recognition for playing Leia was in last year's "In Memoriam." 

The next category is Supporting Actor.  Another strong category with one large elephant in the room not appearing.  Kevin Spacey, had he not been such a scumbag, would probably have been nominated here.  Instead, we have Christopher Plummer getting nominated for not being Kevin Spacey.  I know you said his performance was one of the saving graces of this film, but I can't help but think he's getting the nod as a thank you for saving the release date of All The Money In The World.

Here are the nominees:

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win:  Sam Rockwell - He seems to be the odds on favorite this awards season.  He's finally getting recognition for the quality actor that he is, having put in years of strong to excellent work as a character actor.

Should Win:  Willem Dafoe - One of your top 10 movies of the year (I missed its theatrical run), you called Dafoe's performance the warmest of his career.  As someone who normally goes wayyyy over the top, it's nice to see him play a more down-to-earth character.

Snub/Surprise:  I've already mentioned that my surprise is Plummer, but I've got two people in mind for a snub here.  My first is Armie Hammer, who works wonders in Call Me By Your Name.  My second snub is Bob Odenkirk in The Post.  While Hanks and Streep got the meatiest roles, I really enjoyed Odenkirk's performance as the reporter who finds the Pentagon Papers.  He's been doing excellent TV work for years, and it would have been nice to see some recognition from The Academy.  You could also nominate a number of the fine supporting performances in Get Out (Bradley Whitford, LilRel Howery, or Stephen Root all had scene stealing roles).

Who takes your statue?

AH:

I think Christopher Plummer is genuinely great in All the Money in the World, I can't be sure how much his doing a solid for the movie was a factor. But that being said, I think there were better performances that could have made this cut. But more on that in a second. This is always the heaviest categories for me when it comes to the coulda/shoulda/woulda conversation. Someone worthy is always left out. No one who is here doesn't belong here. But some of my faves definitely missed the cut.

Will win: Sam Rockwell. He's terrific in Three Billboards, but I am not sure why he has become the consensus favorite all of a sudden. Perhaps it's just a realization that he's been wonderful and unsung for so long and people feel compelled to want to reward him for this. I actually think Woody Harrelson is just as good in the movie, but I suppose Rockwell's part is showier. Richard Jenkins is reliably great in The Shape of Water, I mean come to think of it, all these guys are really solid utility players. But Rockwell seems to have all the momentum now for a movie I really didn't think was all that special.

Should win: Willem Dafoe. I'm curious about your comment that he usually goes "over the top" -- I wouldn't say that about him at all. I think he definitely has been in some pretty out there movies (particularly his collaborations with Lars Von Troier) but I've always found him to be a very humane, grounded actor. Particularly in movies like Platoon, Mississippi Burning and The Last Temptation of Christ from earlier in this career. In this movie he is so great with the child actors and the other amateurs around him. Maybe he'll get recognized someday, but it feels like he is just one of those great character actors who will never get his due, unlike Rockwell.

Snub/Surprise: I knew he wouldn't get nominated because the movie has not been in the awards conversation (outside tech categories) at all -- but I would have loved to see Harrison Ford get some well deserved recognition for his fantastic supporting turn in Blade Runner 2049. He was the heart and soul of that movie, and I'm consistently bummed by how little credit he's been given for his late career comeback. I love that you mentioned Lil' Rel Howery, when I saw Get Out I remembered thinking -- this guy should be nominated for an Oscar, but they won't do it because roles like this never get nominated, which is a shame. And finally, the biggest bummer is the exclusion of Call Me By You Name's Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg, who both give beautiful, moving performances that don't have the same gimmicks that the Three Billboards guys do.

BW:

Great call on Harrison Ford in Blade Runner 2049!  I really enjoyed his return to the character, and am sad he didn't get more recognition (also that 2049 wasn't more successful).  I may have misspoken when I said "over the top" in regards to Willem Dafoe.  I would probably only classify a Nic Cage or John Travolta as consistently over the top in their performances.  I just feel that Dafoe has become synonymous with a certain intensity or craziness in his recent performances.  Maybe I'm wrong... I dunno.  Maybe I'm just thinking about this Snicker's commercial.

Anyway, on to our next category.  Best Actress.  I feel like, for the most part, the Academy got this category right without any glaring snubs.  That being said, I feel like 2017 didn't have a ton of great leading performances by women.  I could be wrong, but I feel like there were meatier roles were in the supporting category.  That's not to take away from these fine performances, but I'm not really able to recall many other strong leading actress performances.  I also feel like this one basically comes down to two performances... Frances McDormand and Saorise Ronan. 

Here are the nominees:

Lead Actress:
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Will Win:  Frances McDormand.  I know you didn't rank this film as high as some other critics, but there's no denying that McDormand gave a great performance in this one... perhaps her best since Fargo.  She's always delivers and her performance in Three Billboards is no different.  I think she takes home her second acting Oscar on the big night.

Should Win:  I'm going to go with McDormand here as well.  I know she's already won an Oscar before, which could hurt her.  But I think the pre-Oscar awards going her way (including the SAG and Golden Globe) makes her the front runner.  I would like to see Saorise Ronan win for her wonderful performance in Lady Bird.

Snub/Surprise:  Like I said above, I'm not sure there's another leading performance out there that would push one of these five out (which would also qualify as my biggest surprise).  You could argue that Jessica Chastain could sneak in for Molly's Game, but I'm not surprised she was left out.  If I had to pick a snub, I thought that maybe Gal Gadot would be a crowd favorite/big budget performance that could make her way in.  I don't think that she necessarily deserves a nomination, but the film made a ton of cash and she's literally the only good thing about the DC Cinematic Universe.  


Who ya got?

AH:

I am pretty much in complete agreement with you on this one -- I feel like of all the major acting categories, this was the one where the five nominees were the closest to a forgone conclusion. That doesn't mean it's not strong group, but there weren't a lot of sixth or seventh options creeping in. Although I do think there were a couple outside-the-box options that would have been interesting, but I'll get to that in a second.

Will win: Frances McDormand. This one feels less close than it should, with only Saoirse Ronan (who at 23 is already on her third nomination!) looking like anything close to a real threat. McDormand has always been great, and while it was nice to see her anchoring a movie again after years of strong supporting turns, I have mixed feelings about the film and her performance -- it doesn't wear well. She sort of did the kind of no-nonsense tough-as-nails thing she's done before but her character's motivations and actions are often muddled and unjustified by the film, in a way that makes this feel like one of those wins that doesn't feel totally earned.

Should win: I have a tougher time with this one. I actually probably enjoyed the Meryl Streep performance the most of all of these, it was one of the most finely calibrated and subtle of her Oscar roles of late, but she just won recently for the lackluster Iron Lady, so she has no chance here. Sally Hawkins was lovely and luminous but I don't see her winning for her mute role. I think Margot Robbie deserves a lot of credit for her physical performance as Tonya Harding, but I guess I would be happier to see Saoirse Ronan win for Lady Bird because she is just so funny and refreshing in it.

Snub/Surprise: While it never was gonna happen, I actually think Aubrey Plaza deserved some awards love and consideration for her whacked out turn in the dark comedy Ingrid Goes West. I also thought if Vicky Krieps wasn't such an unknown she would have been a totally valid contender for her strong turn opposite Daniel Day-Lewis in his swan song Phantom Thread. I thought Gal Gadot gave a great movie star performance but maybe not quite right for an Oscar, although I'm all for shaking up what we have come to consider an 'Oscar role' since what she did is arguably just as difficult as more traditional dramatic roles.

BW:

I, too, really enjoyed Meryl Streep's performance in The Post.  It felt raw in a way a lot of her recent work hasn't felt.  

As we move from, quite possibly, the least surprising group of nominations, to a category with a couple question marks in it.  Not necessarily that these performances didn't warrant a nomination, but rather that there were some others that could have a legitimate gripe.  We also have a major point of #MeToo controversy with Casey Affleck not appearing at this year's event to present the Best Actress category.  Plus, we have a real head scratcher in this category.  I'll get into that with my picks.

Let's dive right in to the nominations.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Will Win:  Gary Oldman.  I feel like that if Oldman wins for this performance, it will almost be a lifetime achievement award.  I'm sure he gives a fine performance here, but it feels similar to DiCaprio winning for The Revenant, or Martin Scorcese winning for The Departed.  Not necessarily the best of their respective years, but it just happened to be their time.

Should Win:  I feel like there are three performances that I feel are more deserving than Gary Oldman's.  His role just screams "Oscar fodder" to me.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like Chalemet, Day-Lewis (in his supposed last film role) and especially Kaluuya all give more ground breaking performances in their films.  I'm just sadly convinced that they will just have to settle for being nominated.

Snub/Surprise:  As I mentioned earlier, the biggest head scratcher is Denzel Washington's nomination.  I think he's one of, if not the best actor of all-time, but this one felt like he was getting nominated on his name alone.  The movie was ravaged by critics, and his nomination screams Golden Globe-nominating the stars to me.  This leads to my snub... James Franco for The Disaster Artist.  The recent allegations of sexual impropriety against Franco derailed his Oscar campaign, and Denzel was thrown in to fill the void.  If this was the case, there were better performances that could have been rewarded... namely Ryan Gosling in Blade Runner 2049 and Tom Hanks in The Post.  Heck, if they want to really go out there... I'd say that Hugh Jackman deserves a nod for his wonderful work in Logan.

What do you think?

AH:

It is weird that Best Actor is usually one of the most stacked races, but this year it may be the biggest forgone conclusion of the night, for better or worse. Perhaps no nomination made me happier than Daniel Kaluuya's for Best Actor (other than probably Jordan Peele's nomination for Best Director) and yeah there's no question the shadow of #MeToo will loom largely over this one, probably just for the better. As someone who feels pretty strongly that Denzel Washington was robbed last year in his neck-and-neck competition with Casey Affleck, that Oscar winner's self-excommunication this year feels like karma.

Will win: Gary Oldman. This is the forgone conclusion I'm referring to. Almost from the moment it was revealed that he was playing historic icon Winston Churchill under heavy prosthetics, it was pretty much guaranteed he would be nominated and probably win. I haven't seen the film so I can't say if it's one of those transcendent transformations like Ben Kingsley in Gandhi where the actor 'becomes' the person they're playing. But clearly Oldman has been one of the premiere actors of his generation and it's sort of shocking that he's never one or only been nominated once previously. The one knock against him is some pretty tone deaf interviews he's given recently on the subject of political correctness (yes, he defended Mel Gibson) and long dormant allegations of domestic abuse about his ex have resurfaced. But none of his controversies seem to have gotten enough traction to derail him at this point, as they appeared to derail James Franco.

Should win: This is a really tough one. I loved Daniel Day-Lewis' performance in Phantom Thread -- but the man has THREE Best Actor awards, THREE. And two of those wins came in the last decade. So while this is his last performance (supposedly) and a terrific one, I would personally pick Daniel Kaluuya who brought depth and emotion to what could have been an intellectual, genre exercise. His performance isn't showy at all and asks him to be almost frustratingly passive at times, but Kaluuya owns his character's indecisiveness and justifies it with a harrowing backstory from his youth. I wouldn't be the least upset if Timothee Chalamet won either, he was incredible in Call Me By Your Name, giving a very smart and sophisticated performance even though he's only 22. My love for Denzel Washington is well-documented, and as it has been widely reported his performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq is far better than the film it's in. God I wish that character could be featured in a less cliched, more focused movie, but unfortunately, I think you're right, that it's here because James Franco isn't.

Snub/Surprise: Speaking of James Franco, he was truly brilliant in The Disaster Artist, a terrific film that will probably be relegated to a cult curiosity in part because of Franco's transgressions with women over the years. He will not be the first or the last actor who's problematic personal life will raise questions about whether or not to embrace their work. It's going to present a lot of challenges in the short and long term. I am not surprised Franco paid a price here, and I'm not sad he did. But it raises questions going forward about how much the world outside the movies should influence who we choose to recognize for their achievements. I agree that I would have really loved to see Tom Hanks in here for his richly deserved work in The Post, I was not a Sully fan, but he was great in this, Bridge of Spies and Captain Phillips, and yet has managed to be snubbed for them all, I remember when people used to roll their eyes about Hanks being nominated all the time, now he's not nominated enough. THANKS TRUMP! I also loved Gosling's work in Blade Runner 2049 and Jackman's in Logan, but my biggest hoped for--never-was-gonna-be nomination was Robert Pattinson for Good Time. I know haters of the Twilight movies (which i have never seen) might think this is absurd, but he was as good as a young Robert DeNiro in Good Time, a riveting crime drama that deserved far more recognition than it got.

BW:

Good Time!  I totally agree with you on Robert Pattinson's much deserved nomination.  He completely engulfed himself in that role and shed whatever Twilight baggage was still left on him.  

We've got two more categories to go in this year's Pick-A-Palooza.  Next up is best director.  It's a shame that the academy didn't extend this category like it did best picture, because it sets itself up for some snubs (most notably Ben Affleck missing the cut for Argo as it went on to win Best Picture).  However, I think this is a very strong category and one that I think is now up for grabs.  For the longest time, I thought Guillermo del Toro was a runaway front runner for this category, but The Shape Of Water seems to be dogged by recent accusations of plagiarism.  It's a shame, because I feel he is a truly visionary director that is deserved of larger industry recognition.  He's in the same mold as Peter Jackson... a big budget director that doesn't lose his sense of emotion and character development.  I'm truly torn on this one, as I don't see a locked in pick here.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Will Win:  Jordan Peele.  I'm going out on a big limb here.  I have no basis for this prediction, but I feel like the Academy will recognize his truly groundbreaking work on this film that felt like not just a great film, but an instant classic.  I think he managed to perfectly blend genres and social commentary in my second favorite movie of 2017.  Speaking of favorite movies of 2017...

Should Win:  Christopher Nolan.  Nolan has been one of my favorite directors since I saw Memento, and he's only managed to get better with time.  Dunkirk, to me, is his crowning achievement.  A big budget war film that maintains a sense of emotion and character throughout.  Maybe it's the dark times we live in, but this one's message of hope and honor gave me hope that we might make it through.

Snub/Surprise:  Plenty to choose from here, but I'm going to go with a director whose film was not nominated for best picture. Patty Jenkins for her work on Wonder Woman.  It didn't break any new grounds in terms of storytelling, but man did it feel like a breath of fresh air.  Another snub, for me, was Steven Spielberg for his phenomenal job directing The Post.  I'm not sure you could make an argument for knocking any of the nominated director's out of the top 5, but Spielberg comes the closest.

Who takes your directing prize?

AH:

This year was a strong one for distinct directorial voices-- I was just talking to a friend about this the other night, that with rare exceptions of filmmakers like Wes Anderson, there are very few directors with an unmistakable visual style or auteur voice, or at least these days. One of the flaws of big blockbuster movies is that they tend to subvert the voice of the director (although based on early buzz Black Panther isn't going to make that mistake). 

There were a lot of great established names and newcomers jockeying for just five spots, so there were inevitably going to be some disappointments here, but I was actually very happy with the final five, which feature a woman, African-American and Latino, which is refreshing since this category - with three exceptions -- has only awarded white men.

I hadn't heard anything about any controversy surrounding Del Toro, in fact I figured he was the safest guy here.

Will win: Guillermo Del Toro. If Lady Bird overperforms I could see Greta Gerwig winning. There is a lot of emotional support behind her nomination, and there are compelling reasons to award a woman this year, and she is worthy. It's also an absurd travesty that no African-American filmmaker has ever won Best Director, so awarding Jordan Peele could right that wrong. But to me, Del Toro seems like a no brainer, non-controversial choice. He's likable, has built up a great reputation and he made a lovely movie that will be easy for the Oscars to embrace. Curiously, he'll continue a recent trend of Latino directors cleaning up at the Oscars.

Should win: Jordan Peele. I admire everyone nominated. Especially, Paul Thomas Anderson, who is one of my favorite directors and someone who deserves to win this award sooner rather than later, but there is not film I admired more this past year than Get Out, and more than anything that movie is the singular vision of its writer-director Jordan Peele. It's a remarkable achievement for someone's debut film, it was assured, it was fascinating, thought-provoking and funny. It really was a virtuoso piece of genre filmmaking and it deserves to be recognized here (and for screenplay).

Snub/Surprise: Certainly, Steven Spielberg could have made the cut for The Post, obviously he has plenty of hardware, so if he doesn't get invited to this party it's fine. I really wish Blade Runner 2049 has been more welcomed by the awards season crowd, and Denis Villeneuve is hugely responsible for pulling off that creative feat, he's another person I hope to see win Best Director someday. Patty Jenkins is someone who I think in a weaker year might have made the finally five for Wonder Woman, but I definitely admire what she did. Would have loved to see the Safdie Brothers get a nod for Good Time. But I guess my biggest disappointment is that Sean Baker has not been recognized for his incredible work on The Florida Project, a little masterpiece that has been undervalued all year.

BW:

I agree that of all the snubs, the lack of support for Blade Runner 2049 is probably the most glaring.  I think it's almost a lock for cinematography, but that's about as far as I think it will go on the big night.

And now to the final category of the night... Best Picture.  I agree with your assessment that 2017 was a great year for distinct directorial voices, and this category is a representation of that work.  We've got a lot of strong contenders in what was a stellar year for movies (both indie and big budget).  However, and I think we touches on this last year, I still don't think the expansion of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 films is working in the way it was intended to.  Let's call it the Dark Knight rule.  I think the list was originally expanded over the outrage of that benchmark film getting excluded.  It was a way to honor a not-so-typical Oscar movie that may have been left out in a traditional year.  Since then, we've had a few movies get nominated that might have missed the cut (I was especially fond of District 9 getting nominated), but in recent years, it hasn't really felt the case.  I'm looking at the exclusion of quality big budget blockbusters like The Last Jedi, or the aforementioned Blade Runner 2049.  The fact that they left it at 9 nominations irked me a little.  They really couldn't have nominated one more film???

I digress... let's get to the nominees:

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”“Darkest Hour”“Dunkirk”“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”“Phantom Thread”“The Post”“The Shape of Water”“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win:  The Shape of Water.  I think it's picked up enough pre-Oscars hardware to make it the slight front runner.  I'm still not confident in my vote.  I think Three Billboards or Lady Birdcould make a late push.

Should Win:  I'm going to go with my favorite movie of the year, Dunkirk.  I think it's Nolan's most complete film, as well as the film that most inspires hope in these dark times.  I'm not sure he'll win this go around.  Get Out is also very much deserving of the top honor.  I'm torn here as well.

Snub/Surprise:  I guess my biggest surprise was them limiting the nominations to 9 instead of the full 10. As I said, there's plenty of films that could be considered snubbed, but probably none more than Good Time.  I'm not sure why this film didn't see more love, but my hope is that its stature will grow as time goes by.

That's it for my picks.  It's always a pleasure doing these with you.  I can't believe it's already been 5 years!  Oh, and a congrats to your beloved Eagles on beating my Pats last night.  We'll get you next year!

AH:

Dude, if Blade Runner 2049 doesn't win Best Cinematography I might throw a shoe at the screen. It's beyond absurd that Roger Deakins has never won. He's done amazing work in so many films - No Country for Old Men, Sicario, Skyfall -- I could go on and on. Definitely that's one of the smaller categories I'm watching closely. 

I would normally agree with you about the Best Picture expansion issue, but this year I am actually largely happy with the nominees. I have a lot of problems with Three Billboard and would love to have seen a couple different films in its slot. I haven't seen Darkest Hour, and I've been hearing that it's just ok -- so that's another slot I could see going to a worthy movie. Still. I really liked-to-loved 7 out of the 9, which ain't bad.

In some ways this group reflects that academy finally shaking up what its concept of an Oscar movie is. The fact that Get Out made it in is something akin to a miracle since it is ostensibly a horror film, albeit a thought-provoking, satirical one. But to your point, most of these movies feel like more of the same, traditional awards-caliber movies, and I guess that may never change as long as film critics by-and-large fail to see some of the artistry that is going into big budget blockbusters these days. In other words, we need more Mad Max: Fury Road's in contention for these trophies, not simply to 'please the masses' but because those type of films can be just as compelling as a period drama.

Will win: The Shape of Water.  I am basing this on the strength of its showing in the nominations, and the fact that it feels like a choice that won't anger to many people. There are films I liked better, but I think The Post peaked too late, Get Out is too outside the box and Phantom Thread is too small, ditto Call Me By Your Name. I could see Lady Bird upsetting it because it is probably more accessible, but I don't know if a movie like it can win Best Picture. I think the fact that Dunkirk isn't viewed as a real threat is bizarre, and must be paying a price for not being more of an actor's film. So that leaves Three Billboards, which I like less and less the more I think of it and whose odd attempt to redeem its racist character feels really out of step with the times we're living in.

Should win: Your case for Dunkirk is a compelling one. I agree its one of Nolan's best works and I really think if it had a big heroic leading man performance at the center of it, it would have cleaned up. I wouldn't be mad if it won, and it's certainly one of the better movies here. But for me, it's Get Out, a movie that spoke to me and the whole country at a very unique point and time, and of all of the nominated films, feels the most urgent and satisfying.

Snubs/Surprise: I don't think we will ever see a Star Wars movie in this race. It doesn't help that while critics adored The Last Jedi, a small but vocal group of fanboys despise it. And honestly, I feel like if a Star Wars movie was gonna make it here it would have been The Force Awakens, which was much more digestible for people who aren't super read-in on Star Wars already. But Blade Runner 2049 not being here is really infuriating to me. This was the kind of smart, deep sci-fi that critics and Oscar voter types have always supposedly been clamoring for and it's been totally sidelined, it appears, for no other reason than it didn't make as much of a fortune as its studio hoped. This was a near perfect follow-up to the 1982 masterpiece original, and it's galling to me that it wasn't a more serious contender for awards. But what can you do?

Brother, it's been great walking down memory lane with you, and I'm glad we didn't allow our diametrically opposed football fandom get in the way of our mutual love of the movies. And at the end of the day, it's not the awards that matter, it's the films, and I think the ones we loved from last year have clearly already started to show their staying power -- my number one came out last February and yours in July -- so that's saying something! 'Till next year.