I think what excites me most about this year is the surge of up-and-coming filmmakers doing great work. People like Ava DuVernay, Denis Villeneuve, Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Jeremy Saulnier, did stellar work, and if they're not already household names they soon will be. Obviously I am a total fanboy of the Scorsese-Spielberg era filmmakers, but at some point the torch must be passed and this may be one of those years we look back on and say it happened, albeit without a ton of fanfare. Films like "Moonlight", "Green Room" and "La La Land" were unmistakably the vision of real filmmakers with distinct voices and perspectives -- even when steeped in a genre, they were oddly personal films. And that has me feeling very encouraged about the future of movies.
Also, unlike the last few years, I am mostly pleased with this year's nominees. Considering the slate of films under consideration it would have been an utter travesty to see #OscarsSoWhite for the third year in a row -- Hollywood insiders aren't dumb enough to let that happen -- and while one my personal favorites was -- I think -- unjustly shut out (20th Century Women), I can't quibble with most of the choices (although as per usual there are few films I've yet to see). There is no glaring Selma-type omission this year. And that's a relief.
To your point there were a couple of mild surprises -- but none of them disheartening. The Best Picture race doesn't have a Blind Side style embarrassment in it, and if anything they skew more art house than blockbuster. I too, raised an eyebrow at Mel Gibson's return to glory, although I haven't seen Hacksaw Ridge, I have never been sold on his being this brilliant director. Braveheart has never done it for me, although I appreciated the craftsmanship of Apocalypto. I have never seen The Passion of the Christ, and I am pretty sure I never will.
Will Win: Viola Davis. I will say I consider this category fraud. I remember when the credits rolled on 'Fences' -- I said best female performance of the year hands down, give this woman the Oscar. Having seen 20th Century Women -- although it's a very different, less emotionally demanding role -- I thought Annette Bening warranted a shot at the trophy too. But I thought Davis gave if not the best performance of the year than one of the top two or three. Clearly the decision to run her in Supporting is a calculated one, and while that irks me -- because I don't think it does justice to the significance of her work here -- I think it will have proven to be the smart move.
Should Win: Viola Davis. The most emotionally raw and powerful performance in a film full of them, in a year full of them. I feel bad for Naomie Harris, before Viola Davis was moved to this category I feel like this was her award to lose. But now I think this is probably the safest acting race to predict this year. Viola Davis is one of those actors where it feels like a travesty that they don't have an Oscar. Like that dude from The Artist has an Oscar, but not Viola Davis? That's no bueno.
I also want to add that while I loved Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures, I thought the real breakout star and scene stealing Supporting turn came from Janelle Monae. I would not have been upset if she got that slot over Spencer, especially since she already has an Oscar and it'd be cool to see someone new get
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams or Naomi Harris. I could go either way with this. If there is a huge surge for Moonlight, I could see it benefiting Harris, who gives one of the film's most complex and memorable performances. And Michelle WIlliams has just been so great for so long -- and is heartbreaking in her few short scenes in Manchester by the Sea -- if there is a huge groundswell for that movie (it is nominated in a lot of categories) I could see her pulling off an upset too.
BW: Awww, man. I love Braveheart, but more so on a nostalgia level at this point. I first saw it in the theater at a time when I was just getting in to "real" movies and away from my strict diet of popcorn flicks (the fact that it had blockbuster elements to it probably helped). I remember staying up for the first time to see if it would win Best Picture. It'll always hold a special place in my heart (even if it hasn't aged as well as I remember it). Additionally, I've seen The Passion and can tell you that you're better off skipping it.
It looks like we're both in agreement in supporting actress, with Viola Davis being a lock. I, too, was peeved that she fell into this category, but I've also stopped trying to figure out the lead/supporting dynamic in recent years. I've always thought that if someone was the female or male lead in a film they would fall into that category (whether or not its technically their character's movie). I guess that Fences is technically Denzel's character's story with Viola Davis providing support. Who knows?
Let's move on to the next category before my head hurts, shall we? Best Supporting Actor. I'm ashamed to say that I have only seen one of these performances. This might be my least knowledgeable category of the night. It's good to see some great actors getting rewarded for their work, particularly Mahershala Ali for his excellent work in Moonlight. It's great to see Jeff Bridges nominated again, but while I really enjoyed Hell or High Water, I feel like I've seen that performance before from Bridges. Michael Shannon's nomination is interesting given that his co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson pulled off the upset at the Golden Globes (and wasn't even nominated this time).
And the nominees are:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali. With Casey Affleck being the heavy frontrunner for Best Actor, will the Academy award Ali in the supporting category? My guess is, yes they will.
Should Win: Ali. Again, a great performance from the best reviewed movie of the year.
Dark Horse: Michael Shannon or Dev Patel. I think this might be one of the more open categories of the night, without a surefire frontrunner. Had Ali picked up the Golden Globe, I'd be a little more certain in my pick. I can smell an upset in this category.
Who ya got?
AH: Yeah I didn't see Braveheart until long after its first run -- and well, I had problems with it. But I digress. I think in Supporting we have a solid five although I am mystified that great, scary turns from Patrick Stewart in Green Room and John Goodman in 10 Cloverfield Lane were never even remotely in contention.I get that both films came out much earlier in the year, so perhaps the studios didn't think their performances would remain fresh in voters' minds -- but the politics of this stuff is always lost on me.
I have seen three of the performances that made the cut in this category: Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (which I loved and thought was a real standout in a terrific ensemble), Lucas Hedges (who provided some of the much-needed comic relief and pathos in Manchester by the Sea) and Mahershala Ali, who gave one of my favorite performances of the year in my favorite movie of the year -- Moonlight.
I guess I need to see Lion, I know very little about it or its reputation, but clearly its showing at the Oscars suggest its formidable. Reportedly Dev Patel may be another beneficiary of category fraud, since he is nominally the lead of Lion, although he shares his much of screentime with an actor who plays a younger version of his character. Michael Shannon is one of my favorite character actors working right now and I've heard he was the highlight of Nocturnal Animals, a movie I've heard is very divisive. Shannon is almost always excellent (see 99 Homes in particular) and I imagine he will win won of these trophies eventually, clearly he is an actor's actor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will win: Mahershala Ali. I hope to God he gets it. Not only because he is the most deserving, but I fear it may be the only major award this beautiful masterpiece gets, especially since La La land has become such a juggernaut and appears poised to swamp it in most of the other major categories (but more on that later). Although he's only (SPOILER ALERT) in about a third of this movie, his presence, his heart come across and his is the performance that sticks with you the longest from this haunting movie. He'd taken most of the precursor honors until the Globes decided to get all bonkers and award Aaron Taylor Johnson (who isn't even nominated here) but I suspect the Oscars will get this one right.
Should Win: Mahershala Ali. With Moonlight and Hidden Figures too, Ali is on a roll. He's also terrific as the villain on Netflix's Luke Cage. Hollywood has long been on a hunt for "the new Denzel" (essentially they have also been seeking a "new Tom Hanks" for years too, remember when that was going to be Shia LeBeouf?) -- now there are several contenders, Michael B. Jordan, Idris Elba, Chadwick Boseman and yes, Mahershala Ali. Even though his name may be a mouthful, I suspect it will become a household name soon enough.
Dark Horse: Lucas Hedges. Manchester By the Sea had a lot of very ardent, passionate fans (I appreciated the film a lot, but there were movies that moved me more this year) and I could see if there is enough of backlash to La La Land and Moonlight is too out there for some Oscar voters, I could see Manchester By the Sea becoming a fashionable choice to sweep the major awards, and Hedges, who is very good and naturalistic in this movie, could be the beneficiary of that.
BW: Next up is Best Actress. Some real strong performances here (plus Meryl Streep's Academy mandated nomination). I think 2016 was a particularly strong year for women, so there were bound to be a few on the outside looking in. This category does have a few notable snubs. Amy Adams deserved a nomination for her moving performance in my favorite movie of the year, Arrival. The other notable snub would have to be for Annette Bening's raw performance in 20th Century Women (one of your favorites of the year).
Of the women nominated, this appears to be a 3 person race between Natalie Portman, Emma Stone and Isabelle Huppert. If I had to pick today, I would give this one to Emma Stone. La La Land will win big, but I don't think that Ryan Gosling wins Best Actor since Casey Affleck looks to be a lock in that category.
Here's the nominees:
BEST ACTRESS:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone. She's a Hollywood darling in the most nominated movie of the year. I think she pulls it off.
Should Win: Ruth Negga. I know she isn't a favorite, but I'd like to see The Academy think outside the box this year and her reward her. Alas, she probably won't win it
Dark Horse: Portman. Will The Academy make the former Princess Amidala a two time Best Actress winner? I'm not so sure, but her performance in Jackie is strong enough to warrant it.
AH: I agree about this being a banner year for women's roles -- especially after the last few years where the male categories have been very competitive, the women's races tend to bog down to a single front-runner with perhaps one potential spoiler. I can't remember a real surprise Best Actress win since maybe Marion Coltiard back in 2007. All too often its the glamorous ingenue who is getting pit up against the wily veteran and the whole thing reeks of sexism. At the very least, the industry seems to have turned away from the trend of honoring women for 'getting ugly' for roles, and instead have opted for less gimmicky and more unique work.
As you mentioned, one of my favorite performances in one of my favorite movies of the past year -- Annette Bening in 20th Century Women -- was overlooked here. Which is a huge disappointment to me, God knows, Meryl Streep is a national treasure, but must we nominate EVERY performance she gives at this point? Bening gave one of the best, if not the best, performance of her career in this film. She has never won an Oscar despite many close, worthy calls. I haven't seen Florence Foster Jenkins, but my understanding is that its not Streep's most groundbreaking work. I get it, actors aren't always recognized for the best performance, it can often be about timing and who's due -- for instance, no one thinks Scent of a Woman, as charming as it is, is peak Pacino.
But that too should be argument enough for Bening being included. I would also like to give a shout out to Rebecca Hall's work in Christine, a tense, little seen drama which creates the real life story about a mentally deteriorating television newswoman in the 70s. It's a bleak, dark film, which will probably never find a wide audience, but Hall was phenomenal in it and really showed me something I've never seen before from her. And yes, I was surprised not to see Amy Adams, one of the best young actresses in Hollywood and the total anchor of Arrival get overlooked when the film itself and director did get nods.
Lead categories can break your hearts some years. I am still smarting over snubs for Robert Redford (All Is Lost), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Denzel Washington (American Gangster) from years past.
But enough griping, let me talk about the nominees. I think you may be right. I think that because La La Land is such a mammoth hit (and growing) and it provides Emma Stone with arguably the most tailor-made role of her career, she is probably the front-runner by a nose. Had Natalie Portman not already won an Oscar for Black Swan she might be a bigger threat but Jackie, although its terrific, has not caught on with audiences like that film did, even if I think her performance here might actually be more technically impressive. The real intriguing figure here is Isabelle Huppert, a very respected French actress who's been fantastic for decades and is finally getting the acknowledgment she deserves for a performance I hear is fantastic.
Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land. Streep is too lightweight. Negga is too unknown, although she gives a lovely, quiet performance in Loving. I think Portman's previous win, and relatively recently will turn people away for picking her this time. Huppert is the wild card.
Should win: Natalie Portman. This was a tough one for me. I can't really find fault in Stone's performance. She was luminous, funny, and lovable in La La Land. And just like in Birdman, she showed just enough flashes of edge to avoid being grating. But there was something very Julia Roberts-y about her in this movie. It felt like a great movie star performance, more than a transformative acting experience. I have nothing but respect for her singing and dancing, and her apparently earnest appreciation for the Hollywood icons who inspired her. But for me Portman gave the most emotionally rich and affecting performance in this bunch although I must confess I still need to/want to see Elle, and that may change my feelings about this. But to me Portman has the harder role. Playing someone as iconic as Jackie Kennedy could have been a disaster but she ended up disappearing into the role in a way like she never has before.
Dark Horse: Isabelle Huppert. Sometimes the Oscars like to reward a veteran and even though its not always an accurate indicator, her win at the Golden Globes was eye opening. This could wind up being like the 2003 Best Actor race, when everyone thought it was either going to be Jack Nicholson (for About Schmidt) or Daniel Day-Lewis (for Gangs of New York) and then wacky Adrien Brody came out of nowhere and won for The Pianist and then creeped out a generation of Oscar viewers by assaulting Halle Berry on stage. In other words, I expect Emma Stone to win, but I wouldn't be shocked it Huppert does.
BW: If 2016 was a great year for women's performances, I could make the exact opposite argument for men. To me, it doesn't seem like we've had a ton of breakout performances by leading men this past year. Looking at the nominations, the only glaring snub would have to be Michael Keaton getting shut out for his wonderful performance in The Founder. I guess you could make a case for Ton Hanks in Sully (a movie I thought was overrated), or maybe Andrew Garfield should have been nominated for Silence instead of Hacksaw Ridge. I can't really recall any other male lead performances that stood out to me. If you look at the SAG award nominations, you'll see they mirror these.
With that being said, let's discuss the nominees for Best Actor. Casey Affleck, and his incredibly moving performance in Manchester By The Sea, seems like an almost certain lock to take home the trophy. His less-is-more performance is cleaning up left and right during this awards season, and while Affleck certainly shines in his role, I think giving him the Oscar is not the right play. Denzel Washington gives the performance of his distinguished career in Fences as a deeply flawed husband and father, and I think he deserves it more than Affleck in this case. I know winning it multiple times is almost impossible and winning 3 Oscars is almost unheard of, but Washington deserves it. He's an American institution and this is his crowning achievement. There is also the matter of the sexual harrassment allegations in Affleck's past, and while I'm one to separate art for the artist, it's just sad to note that he's escaped relatively scratch free. Contrast that to how allegations of Nate Parker's past completely derailed the awards chances of the wonderful, The Birth Of A Nation, and I feel that criticism of Affleck in this case is warranted.
Here are the nominees:
Best Actor:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Who Will Win: Affleck. He's cleaned up at every awards show, and it should be no different here.
Who Should Win: Washington. I haven't been as in awe of a performance in a long time as I was with Washington in Fences. He absolutely deserves his second Best Actor trophy (and third overall).
Dark Horse: Ryan Gosling. He won at the Golden Globes and La La Land has a ton of momentum going in to the big show. I feel like one of the leads will take home a trophy, but could it be both? It'll be interesting to see how the SAG awards play out.
What do you think?
AH: I guess you may be right. There were only a handful of really standout lead male performances for me this year. Denzel Washington did some his best work ever in Fences, and although I have more than a few problems with Casey Affleck's off-screen persona (and the double standard which has been applied to him, which you alluded to), I must admit that his work in Manchester By the Sea is terrific and powerful. I rooting for Washington because I think Fences represents a kind of culmination of all his previous work -- it was a role he was born to play and I don't know if he will ever reach a pinnacle like this again. The rest of the nominees for me are no real threat to win. Ryan Gosling is wonderful in La La Land, charming and self-effacing, I love his comic timing in this and a slew of his recent films. Who knew he had such a natural gift for comedy? I have a lot of respect for Viggo Mortensen, but I haven't seen Captain Fantastic, so I can't speak to its worthiness, the same goes for Andrew Garfield, who has shown a lot of promise in films like The Social Network, and has a kind of sweet, old fashioned Montgomery Clift type quality that I gravitate towards. But for my money, as you mentioned Michael Keaton should have been here for The Founder, one of his career best, and a film that really deserves more critical appreciation.
Will win: Casey Affleck. Unfortunately, this feels like a foregone conclusion. I can't really quibble with him winning -- he is that good in this film -- and he's a talented actor (see The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, it's fantastic), but I can't say I am thrilled about it. There is something smug about him, even without factoring past allegations of sexual harassment against him. I also just roll my eyes whenever one actor cleans up every precursor and its almost this self fulfilling prophesy that they will take home the Oscar.
Should Win: Denzel Washington. I just enjoyed and appreciated his performance more than Affleck's. I respected Affleck's, but I found Denzel's to be more emotionally fulfilling and compelling. This film deserves a wider audience too. Denzel and Viola Davis are the best acting duo on screen this year, elevating what could have been just a filmed play into something transcendent.
Dark Horse: Ryan Gosling. If this night turns to be some kind of epic La La Land lovefest, which is entirely plausible, considering that its tied the record for most nominations ever, I could see Gosling getting swept in too. Its not the kind of performance that typically wins Oscars, he doesn't have a big Oscar scene per se. He is just fun and breezy throughout, but with a quiet backlash to Affleck brewing and Fences getting good but not great praise from critics (plus Denzel already has two Oscars and Gosling has none) I could see this being a bit of an upset.
Damn, we agree on pretty much everything.
BW: Ha! We agree so much because we're movie brothers from other mothers. We have similar tastes in movies with a few obvious exceptions (cough cough, Anchorman 2, cough). I highly respect your opinion on movies, and look forward to every one of your blog posts.
Let's move on to Best Director. 2016 was a really exciting year for up and coming directors. This year's class featured strong with from young directors growing their already impressive resumes (Villenueve & Chazelle) or relatively first time directors (Longeran & Jenking). And then there's Mel Gibson... Hollywood loves a comeback and it appears that Mel is back in the good graces of The Academy. I have not seen Hacksaw Ridge, but it appears to deliver Mel's signature combination of violence and faith in an impressive way. I can't really complain that he's nominated since I'm so excited about the rest of the nominees. There are a few directors that could have slid into that 5th slot over Gibson. I'm a little surprised that Martin Scorcese was overlooked for his (by all accounts) exceptional work on high passion project, Silence. Denzel Washington certainly deserved a look for his work on Fences, but I'll take his acting nod as recognition of his work. David Mackenzie certainly deserved a look for his work on Hell or High Water. I'm also surprised that Clint Eastwood didn't get a token nomination for Sully in the same way that Meryl Streep seems to get nominated for every one of her acting roles.
That being said, I'm really happy with the way this category turned out. In my opinion, it's also one of the more wide open categories that could go a number of ways.
Here are the nominees:
Best Director:
“Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve
“Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins
Will Win: Chazelle. Hollywood loves movies about itself and LA in particular. I think La La Land's big night will lead to a Damien Chazelle win. The question I have is do you think we'll see a split Director/Picture scenario?
Should Win: Jenkins. By all accounts, Moonlight is an absolute masterpiece. Jenkins should win for putting this multi-year story together so seamlessly.
Dark horse: Villenueve. Denis Villenueve is (in my opinion) the best director working today. He's put together a string of solid to spectacular movies, and Arrival is my favorite one yet. I know you were not as high on it as I was, but there's no doubting Villenueve's talent. I can't wait to see what he does with the Bladerunner sequel!
Who takes home your directing nod?
AH: Thanks for the shout out my brother -- it's good to be back and blogging again.
Probably of all the major categories I found this one -- Best Directpr -- to be the most refreshing, because as you've pointed out, instead of nominating the same ol' same ol' legends like Clint Eastwood and Martin Scorsese (who is admittedly my favorite director of all time), the Academy has chosen to elevate and celebrate some new blood.
Denis Vilenueve, Barry Jenkins, Damien Chazelle and Kenneth Lonergan are far from household names but they are all visionary, uniquely talented directors whose films reflect their personality and feel like the singular work of a filmmaker with a real voice.
Chazelle's Whiplash conveyed a passion for music and performance which has now been born out in La La Land. Jenkins is a visual maestro, who elicits epically profound performances that are both quiet and realistic. Lonergan is also interested in humanity -- its fragility and beauty. Meanwhile, Villenueve is a thinking man's action director sort of operating on the same plane as Christopher Nolan but with a better facility with emotions.
The Mel Gibson phenomenon I can't quite pin down. I have never been as impressed as some people are with his talents as a director. He seems to stage effective orgies of violence, but little else. I, like you, haven't seen Hacksaw Ridge, but was intrigued by its premise -- about a non violent participant in war -- and perhaps it is so good it warrants his inclusion here. I have always subscribed to separating art from the artist, but Gibson has made that principle hard for me to stick to at times.
I think my main issue with him -- beyond what he's said and done -- is the failure to adequately express remorse or contrition for his actions. Roman Polanski has at least taken responsibility for his crimes (although I think he still should have gone to prison for them), whereas Gibson seems to think mea culpa are beneath him. And now, he's been rewarded with this recognition, but at what cost?
I'd have liked to see Denzel Washington here too in his place. I thought, while Fences is more of actor's picture, that he helped present the material expertly enough that it didn't feel like nothing more than a filmed play. I also think as a filmmaker Washington has really improved but clearly the academy didn't agree.
Will win: Damien Chazelle. My quibbles with La La Land are more thematic than literal. It's a wonderfully charming movie that I somehow doubt will stand the test of time -- it feels a touch too cute for the combative times in which we're living. That said, it is a technical marvel, beautifully shot and edited. And Chazelle has enough wit and sarcasm not to let his film devolve into sap. He'll likely win the big prize/
Should win: Barry Jenkins. Moonlight. He made my favorite movie of the year, so naturally I am going to get behind him for this. He'd done a few small projects before, and the one I'd seen, Medicine for Melancholy, I didn't particularly like -- so this film really took me by surprise and haunted me. He made a film about really tricky subject matter and managed not to give into cliches. Even if he doesn't win, he's got a really bright future.
Dark horse: This is a tricky one. I really feel like the race is between Chazelle and Jenkins. While I know Arrival has a lot of ardent admirers (yourself among them), I don't see them giving this award to Villenueve. And I think for Gibson just getting back in the game is reward within itself. So I think only potential spoiler could be Lonergan because Manchester By the Sea could emerge as a consensus pick if either La La Land or Moonlight prove too divisive.
BW: It's time to make our picks for the big prize... Best Picture. If you look at the list, you'll see a group of solid to spectacular films that represent just how good of a year (for films) that 2016 was. In my opinion, there don't appear to be any notable snubs. There was some grumbling about Deadpool being left off the list, but I think you and I both agree that it wasn't nearly as good of a film that people made it out to be. Sure, it was funny and enjoyable, but it was done better by Ant-Man and doesn't deserve to be anywhere near this list.
Another surprise, in my opinion, was Hidden Figures. When i first saw the trailer for this film, it seemed like it would be similar in tone to your typical Disney feel-good "based on a true story" film. However, as you mentioned in your review, it managed to rise above the typical feel good story and stand on its own merits.
If you look at the rest of the list, you'll see a good mix of films that managed to (in most cases) be both critical and commercial hits. With that being said, I think it boils down to a two horse race between the Los Angeles homage, La La Land, and the generational masterpiece, Moonlight. If past Oscars are any implication, I think La La Land will take home the top prize. Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back, and it will be no different this time.
Here are the nominees:
Best Picture:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Will Win: La La Land. This film is both a huge commercial and critical hit. Throw in the Hollywood-centric theme and it should be a slam dunk.
Should Win: Moonlight. As you said in your review, Moonlight is a beautifully nuanced coming-of-age story. It's a masterpiece that will stand the test of time.
Dark Horse: I can't really see any of these other films competing, but if I had to make a guess, I would say Manchester By The Sea or Fences. Two films that are masterfully crafted and deliver stunning acting showcases for their stars.
I want to take the time to thank you for joining me again. I look forward to this exchange every year. We should do something special for the 5th annual Oscar picks post next year!
What takes home your top prize?
AH: I will never, ever understand the preoccupation with Deadpool. Every time I started to enjoy it I was put off by its pervasive smugness and self-satisfaction. To my mind, the only superhero film of the past several years that warranted Best Picture consideration was The Dark Knight. I think Best Picture nominees should be about something -- even if its abstract -- my favorite film of last year, the one I thought deserved to win it all -- Mad Max: Fury Road -- was ostensibly just a word class chase movie but it also had something to say about sexism, the scarcity of resources, the environment.
I am actually pretty happy with this group -- of course, I resent that Hollywood is scared of less obviously Oscar-ish fare like Green Room or The Witch. I will never stop singing the praises of 20th Century Women, a moving heartfelt movie that just touched me at the right time. Rogue One was a true epic, but if The Force Awakens didn't make it, I don't think this Star Wars side story would have.
I actually am thrilled to see Hidden Figures here. Yes, it's a crowd pleaser -- but for once, it's a worthy one. The movie was smart, slyly sophisticated and it tells a truly remarkable story that deserved a big screen homage. I'm actually not surprised it's here because it was one of the few critical hits to score commercially too. And had it earned more nominations, I could actually see it being one of the bigger threats to La La Land here, which has just buried its competition.
I've seen all the nominees except Lion (which I have heard mostly positive things about) and the Mel Gibson rehabilitation project Hacksaw Ridge. And my final answer is ... predictably, identical to yours.
Will win: La La Land. Like any big fat hit that eats up all the press and buzz, there has been an anti-La La Land storm brewing. The SNL sketch about cops interrogating a suspect for not loving it was a spot on early symptom of the backlash culture we live in now. The one criticism I agree with -- that the light as air movie feels out of step with the bitterly contentious times we are all experiencing -- doesn't feel big enough to torpedo it. And as entertainment, as a production, the movie is virtually peerless. Movies don't get 14 nominations and NOT win. If it doesn't it'll be the biggest upset since Avatar lost to The Hurt Locker.
Should win: Moonlight. I think there are several really great films here. Hell or High Water is a masterpiece. As is Fences. I admire the hell out of Arrival, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea. But the movie that just keeps sticking in my mind, that really felt like a glimpse into the future of filmmaking - it was Moonlight. I only saw it once. It's not an easy movie to explain or simplify (which is perhaps why it hasn't caught on at the box office), but it was simply the most rewarding movie-going experience I had all year.
Dark horse: I wanna say Hidden Figures, because there are no caveats to liking it. Moonlight has the LGBT element, which could turn off prejudiced, older Oscar voters (see Brokeback Mountain's snub in 2006), La La Land has the issues I mentioned above. But Manchester By Sea -- despite the issues Casey Affleck has -- enjoys a very big fanbase, and of all the other nominees not named Moonlight or La La Land, it's the one that I could see coming out of nowhere to win a lot of major awards, including this one.
BW: Well, that's it folks. Tune in to the big night to see how we do... Until next year!
