BW
Hi Adam,
Welcome back! I can't believe we're here again. It seems like just yesterday that we were giving our picks for last year's Academy Awards. It's time once again for the greatest column in blog history... our 3rd Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza!
I really enjoy your incredible blog. With my movie going activity limited with two kids, your reviews make me feel like I'm actually there. Please keep it coming.
2015 was a great year for movies, but unfortunately, #OscarsSoWhite 2.0, is in full effect. I won't go into great lengths here about the absolute white washing that happened in the acting categories, but with celebs like Spike Lee, Jada Pinkett-Smith and Michael Moore already boycotting the Oscars, the Academy has a big problem on its hands that is not going away. Sadly, we won't get to discuss the Oscars that should be. We'll focus on the Oscar nominations that we have. That's not to diminish any of the accomplishments of the people nominated, but there does seem to be a giant elephant (not) in the room this year.
Again, we'll go through major acting categories, plus director and best picture. We'll give our picks for who will win, who should win, and possible dark horses.
2015 seemed like the return of the high-quality blockbuster. From the beauty of Mad Max: Fury Road, to the epic return of the Star Wars franchise, 2015 was a great year for blockbusters. Creed showed that there's still a lot of life left in the Rocky franchise, and the box office tally of the (wildly disappointing) Jurassic World proved that audiences still enjoy a dino-sized scare.
2015 was also a great year for so-called "award" movies. Leonardo DiCaprio might finally win his long overdue Oscar for his gritty, bear wrestling role in The Revenant. And All The President's Men style procedural movies like The Big Short and Spotlight had a big impact on audiences and award voters.
With that being said, let's get to our first category: Best Supporting actress:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jennifer Jason Leigh The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet. She's won a few pre-Oscar awards and seems to be the only one with the momentum going into the big show.
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet. By all accounts, she does a phenomenal job in a shockingly overlooked Steve Jobs. I'm still shocked that this movie didn't do better at the box office.
Dark Horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh. I don't see a Tarantino movie getting shut out. Could an actor win an award from 3 straight Tarantino films?
Who is your Best Supporting Actress?
AH
Thanks for the compliments -- I know you don't post as much as me -- but I, of course, enjoy your blog too. And I agree with you that this was a strong year for films both big and small. In fact, I was disappointed when looking next year's slate that there were fewer films that were sort of events for me on the level of a new James Bond or the return of Star Wars. Like you said, the blockbusters this year, by-and-large were excellent. Unlike you I despised Terminator: Genisys, and like you, I thought Jurassic World was a colossal disappointment. But so many films delivered that could have been disasters from Creed to Mad Max: Fury Road to even The Force Awakens. I was really pleasantly surprised by the creativity that infused a lot of big budget movies. I have also been impressed with the more conventional awards caliber films, although there has been no one film that has been so dominant or universally acclaimed that it towers over the contenders.
But to your earlier point, all of that feels kind of small now in the wake of #OscarsSoWhite take two. To me that's a bigger issue that one year, it's about the industry in general which is downright cowardly when it comes to colorblind casting (except for J.J. Abrams, apparently) and who only seem willing to recognize the excellence of minority performances when they are in a narrow kind of movie ("magical negroes" or "oppressed" fill in the blank) and usually only in supporting categories. Even when an African-American WINS they often don't see the requisite career bump white actors do. Of the recent black winners, only Jamie Foxx appears to have maintained an A-List level of fame. Monique hasn't even made a movie since she won for Precious back in 2010.
And yet, as you said, this is the slate of nominees we have, and despite the lack of diversity, they are all mostly worthy.
When I look at this year's Supporting Actress picks, I am neither bowled over or disappointed. I can't think of a performance I wanted to see there that didn't make the cut but none of these performances that I saw (I still haven't seen The Danish Girl) was very emotionally compelling to me. Although I did enjoy Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. And I am sort of mystified by the critical adulation Jennifer Jason Leigh is getting for The Hateful Eight. It's definitely an impressive physical performance and she's a terrific actress, but she was far from the standout from that movie for me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Will win: Alicia Vikander
Even though I haven't see The Danish Girl, and have heard mixed things about it, there is near universal acclaim for Vikander's performance. Vikander is having a breakout year for her role here and in Ex Machina. And her performance in The Danish Girl supposedly really belongs in lead (not unlike Rooney Mara's in Carol).
Should win: Kate Winslet
Having not seem The Danish Girl, I can't speak to Vikander's performance. I thought McAdams did fine, understated work in Spotlight, and I've said my piece on Jennifer Jason Leigh. I like Rooney Mara a lot but I feel like she was out-acted by Cate Blanchett in Carol, her performance felt very mannered, like she was playing dress up as a shy person. So by default I am going with Winslet who was likable and believable as Steve Jobs' long suffering assistant.
Dark horse: Kate Winslet
I think if Carol has been better represented in the nominations I would have said Rooney Mara, but now it seems like she -- and that film -- are fading. If there is some unexpected Spotlight sweep that could help McAdams get in there. But I think Winslet has been stealthily staying relevant in the precursor awards and this category has a long history of upsets. I think Vikander will probably win but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Winslet does.
BW
That's insane that Monique hasn't made a movie since Precious! I remember having a brief conversation about that last year and recall her saying that she's basically been blacklisted in Hollywood because she didn't play the game during the lead up to her Oscar victory. I know that change takes a long time, but this year seems particularly disappointing.
With that being said, it's on to our second category. Last year, you and I were basically in agreement on every category. This year, we're off on the first category. Let's see how we do with Supporting Actor. In a year marred by controversy, there's perhaps no better feel good story than the nomination of Sylvester Stallone. In a year with not a lot of front runners, he seems to be the one gaining the most amount of momentum going into the big show. Here are the nominees:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone. Nominated for bringing new life into an role he created 40 years ago. Stallone has long been regarded as a muscle action movie actor, but he's shown the acting chops when given the chance. From Cop Land to Rocky Balboa, he's always felt like a wannabe good actor trapped in a chemically enhanced body. I'm going with the sentimental favorite here.
Who should win: Stallone. This year feels like the year of lifetime achievement winners for the men. With Leo hopefully winning his long overdue award and Stallone's win, it feels like a career recognition kind of night.
Dark Horse: Mark Rylance. Bridge Of Spies came and went at the box office with almost no fanfare. I'm not 100% sold on the notoriously snooty Academy giving an award to an action star. It reminds me of Eddie Murphy being denied for Dream Girls because of his perceived status as a comedy actor. Rylance got some early buzz for his performance as the captured Cold War spy. Plus, Spielberg movies usually take home something.
Who you got?
AH
This was definitely the hardest category to predict this year, with a number of terrific performances left on the outside -- chief among them Michael Keaton in Spotlight, Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, Bencio Del Toro in Sicario and a personal favorite of mine, Harrison Ford in The Force Awakens. I honestly think it's a travesty he's not here -- I get it, Star Wars is not typical Oscar fare, but the 1977 film was nominated for Best Picture and Alec Guiness was in the Supporting race that year for his iconic first turn as Obi Wan Kenobi. I think Ford may go down as one of the most underrated and under-appreciated actors of his era and that's a real shame.
The essence of what made Stallone and those movies great was on complete display in Creed, a tremendous example of how to make a great audience-pleaser. And for me Stallone gave a really a breathtaking performance that I hope he builds on in the future. It's downright shocking to see not just Rocky, but Stallone the actor, look so vulnerable. He moved me in Creed to tears, and it would be incredibly disappointing to see the culmination of his career be overlooked.
That said, I am happy with pretty much all of these nominees, save for Christian Bale -- who gave me least favorite performance in The Big Short. His character was more smug than charming and he didn't real land with me until the film's last act. But I feel like he's rapidly filling that Leo DiCaprio bracket -- the respected actor who will be in the running every year and will eventually win because he's "due." On the other hand I was pleasantly surprised to see Tom Hardy here because despite all the raves and attention DiCaprio is getting for The Revenant (and it is well deserved) I think Hardy is the one who makes the movie work. He is a terrific antagonist, and the performance was a wonderful bookend to his brilliant brooding in my favorite movie of the year -- Mad Max: Fury Road.
And yet, this is all about Sylvester Stallone. Despite his occasional buffoonery and penchant for making inflated vanity projects I have always been a huge fan of his. With all due respect to Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis, he is my favorite of the 80s-early 90s era action stars because I always felt he was the best actor. The Rocky movies will endure as his best work because they were always pretty straight-forward character studies with the ominous 'big fight" tying them together. People maybe thought they were going to an action movie, but it was really a compelling narrative about an uncommonly kind lead character whose defining characteristic was his big heart.
The essence of what made Stallone and those movies great was on complete display in Creed, a tremendous example of how to make a great audience-pleaser. And for me Stallone gave a really a breathtaking performance that I hope he builds on in the future. It's downright shocking to see not just Rocky, but Stallone the actor, look so vulnerable. He moved me in Creed to tears, and it would be incredibly disappointing to see the culmination of his career be overlooked.
It's interesting that you mentioned Eddie Murphy -- who of course has plenty of time to resuscitate his career, but after losing for Dreamgirls (which he shouldn't have) he retreated back to the safe mediocre comedies he was making before. Mickey Rourke, one of my favorite actors, has never taken on another awards caliber role after losing in 2009 for his fantastic comeback vehicle The Wrestler. I would hate to see Stallone -- at 70 -- go back to churning out B-movies after this. I think he can finally start to show some more range and have a fascinating late career trajectory,
Either way, no matter what happens, Stallone must be respected now as the great actor he always was, and won't be reduced to being a punchline.
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone
Although there is a long history of soul-crushing surprises in this category (few people predicted Eddie Murphy would lose, for instance), the stars really seem to have aligned for Stallone. He has the most emotional support behind his performance and since the movie was inexplicably snubbed in so many other categories, this could also be a way of paying tribute to a great hit film.
Who should win: Sylvester Stallone
Again, I really admired all the performances here. Particularly Hardy's. I think Mark Ruffalo is really overdue and he did some terrific work in Spotlight (although my favorite performance in the film was Keaton's), and Bridge of Spies' Mark Rylance gave a very memorable turn albeit in a role that seems tailor-made to win the Oscar. But the performance that I'll never forget is Stallone's in Creed. Again, the word culmination comes to mind because we've all grown up with the Rocky Balboa character in its various iterations and it was if his acting has finally grown up to with this film. Hopefully, he doesn't forget to give Ryan Coogler the credit he deserves this time.
Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo
Although Mark Rylance won several precursors, I'm not convinced that his film has stayed as fresh in voters' minds. I think Hardy could benefit if The Revenant just dominates the night. But I think Ruffalo has the strongest "he's due" narrative of the bunch, and although he has dipped a toe into commercial acting with the Avengers films, he's the kind of actor's actor that is made for awards like this. I think if anyone can eek out a victory over Stallone, it's him.
BW
And that is why I defer to you for top notch insight and analysis. I've always assumed that Ruffalo already has an Oscar. He's too good of an actor to not have one on his shelf. Is it too late to change my dark horse pick?
On to our next category: Best Actress. To me, it seems like we have two front runners and a bunch of also-rans. I think this category boils down to a two horse race between Cate Blanchett and Brie Larson. The one here that looks like she was nominated based solely on reputation is Jennifer Lawrence for Joy. It's her lowest rated David O. Russell collaboration, so I'm not sure why she's there. I hate to admit that I haven't seen any of these movies this year. I'm dying to see Room, and Carol really peaks my interest. I've heard mixed things about Brooklyn. A local radio show described it as almost a Lifetime movie on the big screen.
Here are the nominees:
BEST ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett. I'm going with my gut on this one. I'm not sure the Academy will give the award to the slight favorite in Brie Larson. They aren't always on the cutting edge when it comes to younger, first time nominees. We'll see. I'm going with Blanchett here.
Who Should Win: Brie Larson. A stunning performance in one of your favorite movies of the year. I desperately need to see this wonderful film. Plus, wouldn't it be nice to have a fresh face holding the golden statue?
Dark Horse: Larson. I think she has a really good opportunity to pull off the upset.
Who takes home your Best Actress Oscar?
AH
I think you assessment of this race is correct. Although I have heard much better things about Brooklyn than apparently you have. I am have tickets to a screening of that one for next week I believe, so I will reserve judgment. I think virtually no one outside industry insides has seen 45 Years (it hasn't even grossed $1 million yet) but I have seen nothing but critical adulation for Charlotte Rampling, who is a great character actress (see The Verdict or Stardust Memories).
The other three performances I did see. Joy I actually just saw last night (blog TBD), and I enjoyed it a lot more than I expected to. I was starting to get a little cynical about Jennifer Lawrence. She to me has become something of a cross between Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep. She's both America's sweetheart and the actress who has her pick of any movie she wants right now AND she is an Oscar darling who will get nominated for virutally every performance she gives. That said, she is terrific in Joy and although that film has its detractors, I think she deserves to be in this race. That said, one of my favorite lead female performances of the year should have been here and was snubbed, that would be Lily Tomlin in Grandma. I thought both she and that film were incredibly underrated and deserved breakout status, but unfortunately they didn't catch on with audiences or Oscar voters.
But alas these are the nominees we have.
Who will win: Brie Larson
Although the subject matter of Room is challenging, I think she is so compelling and charismatic in the film that it won't matter. She has been steadily been building up a reputation as a strong dramatic actress and the Oscars have a huge preference for ingenues in this category (the fact that the 40-something Cate Blanchett is considered a 'veteran' speaks to the ersatz sexism still entrenched in this industry). Blanchett was terrific in Carol, but she also won just two years ago, and has a Supporting trophy in her pocket as well. She may win another one some day but I don't think this is her night.
Who should win: Brie Larson
She gave one of the most moving, emotional performances of the year. The surprise nominations for Room in not just the Best Picture but Best Director categories suggest that Oscar voters 'got' the film. And with the caveat that I haven't see the Rambling or Ronan movies, it feels like the least typically Oscar-baity of the low, which I love. Like sidebar -- it would have been such a cool, unconventional choice see Charlize Theron here for her deserving work in Mad Max: Fury Road, but as you've mentioned previously, the snooty-ness is strong with this voting body.
Dark horse: Cate Blanchett
I want to saw Jennifer Lawrence here but I just don't think they will give it to a film this polarizing, although Meryl Streep won for The Iron Lady, a film that was pretty god awful. I don't think Charlotte Rampling or Saorise Ronan's films are getting enough traction to overtake Larson or Blanchett, And Blanchett is an Oscars favorite. So although I think Larson is pretty close to a lock, I also believe Blanchett is her biggest competition.
P.S. Shortly after making my picks I read that Charlotte Rampling, in her infinite ignorance, argued that a boycott of the Oscars by black actors was "racist against whites," so yeah I don't think she has a prayer of winning.
BW
Uggghhhhhhh! Ah, yes... the age old problem of racism against whites. See you at the next Donald Trump rally Charlotte. Yikes! I wonder how she'll feel about today's emergency measures taken by the Academy to ensure diversity within the nominees.
I don't quite know how to segue from that to our next category, so I'll just go ahead and cut straight to the chase. I feel like this is a strong group of directors. From the big and bold world of the apocalypse (Miller) to perhaps the most innovative director working today (Inarritu), to a great director working out of his comfort zone (McKay), I feel like we have a dynamite group of directors. I'm really torn here. I love the fact that George Miller was nominated. Besides Stallone, there isn't a more rewarding "comeback" story in this year's race than George Miller. I wasn't the biggest Mad Max fan growing up, and so it took me awhile to see Fury Road in the theaters. But my hesitation was completely without merit. Without exaggeration, it may be one of the most beautiful films ever made, certainly one of the most exciting. Throw in the fact that it may be one of the most feminist action movies ever made and you have the perfect recipe for an Oscar winner (plus, it was just so damn fun!). However, I feel like the tide is swelling for The Revenant and it could be in for a big night.
Here are the nominees:
DIRECTING
- Adam McKay - The Big Short
- George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
- Lenny Abrahamson - Room
- Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Who Will Win: Inarritu. I don't think anything is slowing this one down. The only thing that could keep him back is I don't believe there has ever been a back to back directing winner. Hell, you can probably count the number of major category back to back winners on one hand. Was Tom Hanks the last to do it? I know that Christoph Waltz won two Oscars, but his movies weren't released in two straight years.
Who Should Win: George Miller. I honestly can't remember seeing a movie quite like Mad Max: Fury Road. It's the best Max movie by a long shot. The Academy loves big time event movies (Gladiator, Return Of The King, Braveheart, etc.), so I could see them going with Miller here. I may have to go home and watch this movie tonight!
Dark Horse: I really think that it's either one or the other, but If I had to pick one I would go with Adam McKay. His first dip into drama was a surprising success.
Who you got?
AH
Are we going to come back to Best Actor? I think the so-called emergency measures are long overdue. I've always thought it was absurd that you had these ancient Oscar voters who reportedly don't even watch most of the films and who are so disconnected from what's happening in the movies that they aren't familiar with any actor under the age of 40 who isn't named Jennifer Lawrence. It's sad that it took the embarrassment of #OscarsSoWhite to do something dramatic, but hey it took a massacre in a church to bring down the Confederate flag in South Carolina, so what can you. This is a really hard category to predict. I think at least four of the five nominees have a legit chance to win.
Dark horse: Adam McKay. His film just won the PGA, which I think makes it a dark horse to win Best Picture, and while these two awards sometimes split, they usually don't. The Big Short is enough of a crowd pleaser and not particularly divisive with critics, so it might pull off an upset here.
I agree that George Miller has the best "comeback" narrative. After doing some kids movies, he got back to what he does best -- mind blowing action that is both gorgeous to look at and staged (mostly) for real. Inarritu is on a real hot streak with The Revenant coming right after his triumph with Birdman. McCarthy made one of the best journalism films of all time with Spotlight and Adam McKay showed he has real range, with his first serious film The Big Short. Room is terrific, but I think Lenny Abrahamson's nomination is his reward here.
Still smarting over the the snub of Ryan Coogler for his work on Creed, and quite frankly JJ Abrams, who did a miraculous job rejuvenating Star Wars, deserved some consideration too, but I digress.
Who will win: This is so hard but I am going to take a risk here and say George Miller. I think he will benefit from the entirety of the academy voting for this one, and arguably of all the nominees his film is the most distinctly a director's movie. At 70, I think voters understand that he's due and as well-received as The Revenant is I don't see Inarritu winning Best Director two years in a row. I also feel like McCarthy's film is just too small to win, but I could be wrong.
Who should win: George Miller. This is a no brainer for me because Mad Max: Fury Road was my favorite movie of the year. I thought the film was visionary and original and a win for him would be an acknowledgment of what an ambitious feat he pulled off.
Dark horse: Adam McKay. His film just won the PGA, which I think makes it a dark horse to win Best Picture, and while these two awards sometimes split, they usually don't. The Big Short is enough of a crowd pleaser and not particularly divisive with critics, so it might pull off an upset here.
BW
Ah yes, Best Actor! I completely flaked on this one. Chalk it up to sleep deprivation with the new kiddo. Maybe it's because (in my mind) this category such a foregone conclusion, that I completely omitted it.
To me, this is a one horse race. It's Leo's year and anything else will completely shock me. The Revenant is getting praised for it's harsh shooting conditions (using only natural light and facing the harsh wintry conditions), while Leo seems to be getting the same praise. Is it his best role? Probably not (to me, it's The Wolf Of Wallstreet), but The Academy definitely likes to make their stars wait their due course. Like his mentor, Martin Scorcese, Leo probably should have won for his earlier, better work. But here we are and one of America's greatest actors will finally be getting his name called. There were other great performances (I especially enjoyed Matt Damon's role in The Martian), as well as a few obvious snubs (Michael B. Joran in Creed comes to mind), but none are strong enough to stop Leo's Titanic (see what I did there?) like momentum.
Here are the nominees:
BEST ACTOR
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio. He finally gets his name called, and deservedly so.
Who Should Win: Leonardo Dicaprio. While it may not be his best role to date, he still deserves to win.
Dark Horse: Matt Damon. He's already won the Golden Globe, but I don't think he's got enough momentum. Redmayne won it last year, so he's out. Cranston's reward is the nomination, and Fassbender was criminally overlooked in his refreshing take on Steve Jobs. It's Leo's night. Everyone else is along for the ride.
Who is your best actor?
AH
No worries. I'm sleep deprived, too, and I don't even have a good excuse. And yeah I totally agree with you. I am a Leonardo DiCaprio fan and I do think he give a terrific, committed performance in The Revenant. It's probably not his best, in fact my two favorite DiCaprio performances are films he wasn't even nominated for -- The Departed and Django Unchained. He's been so good for so long and probably deserved to win a couple years where he didn't. In a year where the competition for Best Actor isn't as stiff as it usually is, it appears that this narrative has taken hold that he HAS to win, which is a little annoying to me. Although I have no problem with it. I would have to have seen Michael B. Jordan nominated here too. Creed and Stallone's supporting performance work because of Jordan, hopefully he'll get there soon. And I was a big fan of Johnny Depp's work in Black Mass, which I guess just faded away since it came out so early.
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio
He gives a memorable, visceral performance in The Revenant. It's not actually the type of role that usually wins Oscars (Robert Redford, for instance, was unjustly snubbed for his similarly rigorous performance in All Is Lost). It's got minimal dialogue (he has one big Oscar type speech) and he spends much of it incapacitated. But he is compelling to watch here and while in a perfect world the best acting should be all that matters, narratives usually matter more when it comes to this type of thing.
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio.
That being said -- I do think DiCaprio probably gave the best performance here. I haven't see Trumbo, but I've heard the Bryan Cranston film is merely OK. I really liked Michael Fassbender's performance in Steve Jobs and am happy to see it recognized, but I might but it one notch below. I wasn't as high on The Martian as you were. I though it was a very good mainstream piece of entertainment, and I thought Matt Damon did wonders with a well-crated movie star role, but I wasn't emotionally affected by it in the same way I was with say Gravity. I have not seen Redmayne's performance either, but I've heard very mixed things about the film and needless to say we're not going to have the third ever back-to-back Best Actor winner on Feb. 28. Spencer Tracy, Tom Hanks and Eddie Redymayne? I don't think so.
Dark Horse: Matt Damon
And I contradict myself within seconds again. I think Damon is also deserving of an Oscar. Even though some of my favorite performances of his -- namely in The Talented Mr. Ripley and also The Departed, were never nominated. He seems like a immensely good guy -- the whitesplanining diversity incident -- notwithstanding. And his movie was a big fat hit. I think he'll get one eventually, but I think if anyone can upset DiCaprio, it's him. But now that The Revenant has become a big hit in its own right, I don't think it's possible for that to happen.
BW
Leonardo wasn't nominated for Django??? Tragic. I totally agree with your statement about Johnny Depp's work in Black Mass. The Academy has a really bad short term memory, and unfortunately, September is light years away.
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. It's my #3 and your #1 movie of the year, and I could have easily placed it at #1. It took a 30+ year old franchise and made it fresh and exciting. There isn't an uninteresting frame in the entire film. Plus, Hollywood loves big epic spectacles, and this certainly fits the bill.
It's now time for the big award (unless I forgot another category)... Best Picture. You and I are both on record as not liking the "up to 10" movie rule of this award. I don't know what the cut off is, but there are a number of movies that could have fit into those final three spots. Creed revitalized the Rocky franchise, while Star Wars was nothing short of breathtaking. Personally, I would have enjoyed seeing Inside Out crack the top ten. I think it's Pixar's best movie in years, and a stunning piece of film making. I know it's a lock to win the best animated movie, but if there was ever a year in which an animated movie could stand a chance to win Best Picture, I think it's this one. I enjoyed it that much. Of the seven nominated, I think there's a frontrunner (The Revenant), a close second (Mad Max: Fury Road), and a bunch of others that have a decent chance. Of the three years we've been doing this, I'm the least sure in my pick.
Here are the nominees:
BEST PICTURE
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
Will Win: The Revenant. I could see a split director/best picture, where The Revenant wins best picture, and George Miller wins director and vice versa. I think The Revenant has the most momentum going in to the big night. I think it squeaks out a win.
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. It's my #3 and your #1 movie of the year, and I could have easily placed it at #1. It took a 30+ year old franchise and made it fresh and exciting. There isn't an uninteresting frame in the entire film. Plus, Hollywood loves big epic spectacles, and this certainly fits the bill.
Dark Horse: The Big Short. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I have a feeling about this movie. It's funny, did well at the box office, and has a ton of stars in it. I can't see it getting shut out. I could also have gone with The Martian, but with Ridley Scott getting shut out in the directing category, I don't like its chances.
So that's it for me. Who takes home your big prize?
In a side note... thanks for doing this again. I really enjoy talking with movies, and I love your blog. You have a great way of making your readers feel like they're in the theater with you. I would like to try to do this more often. I loved talking Ghostbusters with you (even though I'm still on the outs with it... Ha!
AH
Dude, this is hard. #That'sWhatSheSaid. This has got to be the most difficult to predict Oscar race I've seen in years. Now that I've caught up and seen all the films nominated, I do think there are a few you can scratch off right off the bat. I liked Bridge of Spies a lot but it didn't resonate quite enough to topple contenders that feel fresher. I was somewhat underwhelmed by Brooklyn, it's not a bad movie, but also not a great one. I think Room is too small a film to topple some of these others. That leaves The Revenant, The Martian, Mad Max Fury Road, Spotlight and The Big Short. I think you can eliminate The Martian next because its director, Ridley Scott, wasn't even nominated. Although in the past that benefitted Argo, I think that was a unique circumstance where Hollywood was devastated for poor multi-millionaire Ben Affleck, and wanted to a do mea culpa. Even though Scott is a living legend, and The Martian may be his biggest crossover success, I don't sense the same aggrieved feeling for him. Director and Best Picture may still split this year, but I doubt a film will win whose director isn't even in the mix.
Sidebar -- I hate to sound like broken record, but in such a wide field Creed, Straight Outta Compton and The Force Awakens should of and could have taken the spots occupied by Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and maybe even Room, although that film made my top 10.
So I think this usually competitive Oscar race is actually down to four movies. There's Spotlight, which everyone loves but very few people are going to see, Mad Max which also enjoys universal acclaim but is, at the end of the day, an action film, The Revenant, which is really hot right now but also, technically, the nominee with the weakest reviews and The Big Short, which is sort of in the middle of the pack in terms of being an audience pleaser and a more traditional Oscar-baity movie.
Will win: Spotlight
Actors are the biggest branch of Oscar voters and I don't see them going for Mad Max, which despite its epic performances is viewed more as a technical achievement. And despite how hot The Revenant is, I see them rewarding that film with Best Actor instead. Between The Big Short and Spotlight I think it's really close, and the PGA win gives Adam McKay's film more momentum, but I am kind of convinced that the more polished film will win here. Although I could be totally off base.
Should win: Mad Max Fury Road
I've said it before and I'll say it again. My favorite film of the year by a pretty wide margin. I could watch it almost anytime. I am still in awe that they pulled it off and I'm thrilled that it's here. Should it win Best Picture it would go down as the COOLEST winner since perhaps No Country for Old Men or perhaps The Godfather Part II prior to that. But the coolest movies never win. Apocalypse Now lost. Pulp Fiction lost. Star Wars lost. I could on and on.
Dark Horse: The Big Short
I think I opted for Spotlight over this one because I simply thought it was the better film. The Big Short was a little too pleased with own cleverness at times and I think it's overall premise was inherently problematic, whereas Spotlight, in the least showy way possible, presented heroes you could root for without reservations and told a sensitive story with refreshing restraint. But it's not been winning many of the big awards and seems.
BW
That's all she wrote, folks. Thanks to Adam Howard for joining me again. Until next year!
BW
That's all she wrote, folks. Thanks to Adam Howard for joining me again. Until next year!
