It's that time of year again! Movie blogger extraordinaire
Adam Howard joins me to pick all of the major categories in the 2020 Oscars. 2019 was a great year for films, but the #OscarSoWhite controversy doesn't seem to be going away any time soon. There's some MAJOR snubs in this year's set of nominees, which we'll get to more in depth in just a moment. So sit back, relax and enjoy our picks for the 2020 Oscars. It's the 7th annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza!
AH:
Let's get started because I am so fucking furious over this morning's Oscar nominations. I was preparing myself to be disappointed but I am shocked at just how many of my hoped for nominees got snubbed. I think after last year's debacle -- where Sam Rockwell got in for a George W. Bush impression whereas Michael B. Jordan didn't for a career-defining performance in Black Panther AND where Green Book ultimately triumphed over infinitely superior competition -- this year is the nail in the coffin for me.
I'll always be curious who gets what and who wins but I am turned off of watching, turned off of caring and generally convinced that until something fundamental changes the Academy is and will remain a stodgy, old, white, pretty racist institution that by and large ignores the best and most interesting films so they can reward what makes them feel comfortable.
Every once a while, something different like Mad Max Fury Road, Get Out or Moonlight slips in there and sometimes they even win and we're all given a little false hope, but at the end of the day there always seems to be a step back in the wrong direction.
I need to take solace in the fact that this was an excellent year for movies/performances -- that the slate of Best Picture nominees is strong and at the end of the day these awards have far less influence now than they ever did before. Like off the top of my head I can't tell you how won Best Actor or Best Actress last year. I genuinely don't remember. I think the critics' groups (who overwhelmingly favored Lupita Nyong'o's Us performance for example) are far more spot on and as I always say time will be kinder to the better films here.
Spike Lee's Do the Right Thing was not a box office hit and was almost completely shut out at the Oscars, and yet its cultural legacy has lived on far beyond the film that won that year, Driving Miss Daisy.
But yeah, this year's results were trash. No Uncut Gems. No Greta Gerwig. No Eddie Murphy. No J-Lo. No Lupita. No The Farewell (p.s. Notice a trend here, most of these films have minorities or women at their center). It's hard to take this thing seriously when they so egregiously screw up.
BW:
Oh man, you beat me to it. Getting our hopes up for the correct Oscar nominations must be what being a Cleveland Browns fan is like. Year after year after year, we hope that this is finally the year that everything comes together. This is the year they will actually reward the best performances and films. But before you can blink, we're looking at a 3-13 season and they've fired their coach. I gave up on watching The Oscars years ago and I'm perfectly at peace with it. I'll check out the winner's list the next day, but I'm not staying up for something that will most likely disappoint me. Green Book's wet fart of a win last year only sealed the deal for me. It summed up the Oscars in a nutshell... a culturally tone def, faux woke of a movie. It's everything that people complain about Hollywood (pretending to be liberal while not-so-secretly being a horrible place for women, people of color, etc.). I think I'm numb to the shock after all these years. However, I am dumbfounded by today's nominations. No Uncut Gems (my personal favorite of the year). I get that Adam Sandler made Jack & Jill, but that shouldn't matter. I get that Eddie Murphy made numerous critical flops, but that shouldn't matter. Reward the performance. Don't punish for past career choices. And don't get me started on Lupita's historical snub. I was secretly hoping that she would get nominated for Best Actress and Supporting Actress for her generational performance in Us. Like you said, the Oscar winners (especially when they're wrong) are usually forgotten. Is anyone still talking about Green Book? Or are we clamoring for another Black Panther? Does anyone rank Ordinary People with some of the best movies of all-time? Or has Raging Bull cemented its legacy? Same goes for Dances With Wolves, Shakespeare In Love, and on and on and on.
There is one thing that I do love about Oscar season, though. It's our traditional back and forth predicting the wins, losses and snubs. If there's one bright side to today's nominations, it's that we'll have plenty of red meat to chew through. Let's get started with our 7th annual (where has the time gone?) Oscar pick-a-palooza.
First up is Best Supporting Actress. I'm not going to lie... I've only seen one of the nominated performances... Laura Dern in Marriage Story. Luckily, it seems to be the performance that will win. I, however, was not feeling Dern's performance. I really liked Marriage Story, but her performance wasn't anything special. She was essentially reprising her role in Big Little Lies. Obviously the biggest snug in this category was J-Lo in Hustlers. She was a force of nature and owned every minute of that film. But hey, who needs J-Lo when you can nominate Kathy Bates for the millionth time (sarcasm heavy)? Also, is Margot Robbie becoming the next Meryl Streep? It seems like she gets nominated for every dramatic role she's in... good or average. Sadly, this may be the weakest category in the entire show.
Here's the nominees:
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Who Should Win: Ummm, I have no idea. I'll say Forence Pugh for Little Women just to throw a wrench in Dern's coronation.
Who Will Win: Laura Dern. This one seems like a certain lock, and nothing in these nominations tells me otherwise.
Snub: J-Lo. From the first trailer, her performance seemed destined for recognition. Like I said earlier, she owned every minute of this movie in a way that only she could. I could spend more time typing out my disappointment, but honestly, I'm too tired. Another snub on my list would have to go to Shuzhen Zhao for her heartwarming turn in The Farewell. While that movie was not my cup of tea, she was really good as a woman blissfully ignorant of her terminal cancer diagnosis.
Who you got?
AH:
That's funny -- I assumed you watched the show. I guess I am right where you -- and I'm beginning to suspect -- most people are. I no longer feel this pull to watch the show which is always trying to pander. Like yes, on some level it's crazy that a superhero adjacent blockbuster like Joker is leading all the nominations, but on the same day they serve up Scarlett Johansson in not one but two movies. But ya know there's only room for one woman of color in the whole bunch. I too love doing this prognostication but it's beginning to make me a bitter person about the movies. Which I'd hope to never become.
Luckily, I've seen all of the nominated performances except for Margot Robbie's in Bombshell. I've heard nothing but bad things about that movie and went from being interested in seeing it to waiting for Netflix. I think its the turning problematic Fox News hosts into heroes aspect of it that has never sat well with me. That being said, I really like Margot Robbie. I think she's making some cool interesting choices, even if she has bogged herself in the DC comics movie world (with Harley Quinn). So she may be totally worthy here, I just don't know.
And then there's the J-Lo of it all. Her snubbing was the most shocking to me of any of them since this category hasn't been viewed as that competitive and most people had her pegged as the one person who might unseat favorite Laura Dern. At the end of the day I don't know if it was her larger persona and track record of mostly misses that screwed her here. She can take solace in the fact that Hustlers was an enormous hit and completely revitalized her movie career. Here's hoping the back half of her career is more Out of Sight than Monster-In-Law.
I think Scar-Jo is lovely in JoJo Rabbitt, but one nomination was more than enough. Kathy Bates is probably one of the more unassailable things about Richard Jewell, but I don't think this is a nomination that HAD to happen. So...
Who will win: It's going to be the Laura Dern show and you're so right about her performance in Marriage Story, it's her character from Big Little Lies on the big screen. She's great, she's always great. And she should have won an Oscar many times before. She's due and she's beloved in the industry so she will win, and that's precisely why these awards are BS because its all about a narrative surrounding a film, director or performance, never the work itself.
Snub: I totally agree with you besides J-Lo I had been pulling for Shuzen Zhao, who was the heart and soul of The Farewell. I think Julia Fox was great in Uncut Gems in a Marisa Tomei-like breakout performance, but like the movie itself, her work never seemed to get serious consideration from Oscar voters.
Who should win: With J Lo gone, I too and going with Florence Pugh. She had an amazing year, with Midsommar and Little Women (as well as Fighting with My Family, which I've yet to see but have heard great things about). She is the MVP of Little Women in my opinion, which is no small thing because that film is full of wonderful performances. She's one of the more exciting new actresses on the scene and I hope she doesn't go the way of Jennifer Lawrence. Sometimes these female phenoms get the backlash treatment for no good reason very fast and then are rarely heard from again.
BW:
I still "watch" the show... just not the entire thing. I try to watch the opening act and the first few awards, but I just can't commit to staying up so late to watch something that will probably disappoint me. Before moving on, I want to circle back to Bombshell for a minute. I definitely want to watch it because I (sadly) worked there around that time, and it'll be interesting to see how they depict that time period. While there were rumors and innuendo, the truth didn't get down to worker bees like myself. I don't know if it's necessarily exonerating Fox News for its horrid views, but rather showing that it can happen to any woman, anywhere, at any time. I'll reserve judgment until I see it, I guess. Still, it seems like Charlize Theron got the acting nod because of how closely she looks like Megyn Kelly in her makeup.
On to the next category, Best Supporting Actor. To me, this is the least "controversial" category in terms of snubs or surprises. It also seems like one of the most safest bets in the show. It's Brad Pitt's award to lose, and I don't think there's much of a doubt about that. He's great in Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, and I see no reason why he won't be up on stage. Is it his best performance? I'm not ready to declare that at this time, but it seems like this will be the one that finally gets him an Oscar (much like his co-star DiCaprio finally winning for The Revenant and countless other "it's their time" winners).
As far as the other nominees, my favorite is probably Joe Pesci in The Irishman. I kept waiting for him to explode in burst of classic Pesci intensity, but it never happened. His completely against the grain performance might just be my favorite in-screen performance of the year.
Here's the nominees:
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Who will win: Brad Pitt. Like a fine wine, Brad Pitt only gets better with age. And I LOVE that he's not trying to run away from aging... similar to someone like Robert Redford. Granted, he still looks 35, so that helps, but I'm really excited to see where this chapter of his career takes him.
Who should win: If anyone deserves it more than Pitt, it's Pesci. He gives the performance of his career here as a man who can turn tides (and take lives) simply by looking at someone. I can't say enough about his performance in The Irishman.
Snub: Off the top of my head, I can't really think of anyone who was snubbed per say, but I'll give you a couple of long shot performances that I absolutely adored. First up is LaKeith Stanfield in Uncut Gems. Adam Sandler had the meatier role, but Stanfield was the perfect "devil on the shoulder" to keep Sandler's madness at an 11. But like you said, that movie was criminally left out of the show. Another role that I loved was Daniel Craig in Knives Out... in particular his Foghorn Leghorn accent. He was the perfect blend of quick wit and self-deprecation that served as the backbone for the "whodunit" story. Who would I take out to put one of these guys in? Probably Al Pacino. I don't think he really stepped out of his comfort zone with his portrayal of Jimmy Hoffa. It was a little too "Scent Of A Woman" for me. Still enjoyable, but nothing new.
Who takes home your statue?
AH:
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about the Pacino performance in The Irishman. I thought he was more brilliant than he's been in a decade, and probably sold the more youthful scenes a little better than his counterparts. I was also totally bowled over by Pesci's work. I think this is one of those categories where it is very hard to compare performances. There's no question that what Pesci, Pacino and Hanks for that matter are doing is technically more demanding than what Brad Pitt is doing. But Pitt inhabits his Cliff Booth character so fully that I think he's undeniable. It's one of the great movie star performances and it sort of feels like a culmination of all the laconic cool guys he's played over the years. I'm excited to see him win for this one because it isn't a stereotypical big, scene-stealing supporting performance. He is the mellow yang to DiCaprio's combustible ying and controversy aside the Bruce Lee scene was a hoot
For me the person who's not doing anything new is Anthony Hopkins, a terrific actor by any measure, but he's playing a not very nuanced portrait of a arguably more complicated man. I'd like to have seen the great Willem Dafoe here for The Lighthouse, which he was phenomenal in.
Who will win: Brad Pitt. He's been reliably good for so long that he's often overlooked (I thought he deserved to win for Moneyball). To answer your question, I think this might be his best performance because it just feels like the pinnacle of what he does. I think he's great in Seven, Twelve Monkeys, the Ocean's movies and especially Burn After Reading, but yeah it's his time and his year and I'm not mad about it.
Who should win: I think Pitt, but I too have a soft spot for Pesci, who I wish was still interesting in making movies on the regular. He apparently did this as a favor for Scorsese, and thank God he did. There is something so majestic about his work in the movie and how against type he is. But yeah Pitt deserves this one.
Snub: I've already sang Dafoe's praises here. I love Craig in Knives Out, but I think of that as more of a lead performance albeit as part of an ensemble. So i'll throw a wild one out there that never ever could have happened. But Jonah Hill's completely batshit performance in The Beach Bum is one of the funniest I saw all year. It's a totally 'not for all tastes' movie and Hill's role is almost more of a cameo. But I just think he was marvelous.
BW:
After reading what I wrote earlier, you're absolutely right about Al Pacino in The Irishman. Honestly, I was just looking at it as who I would replace in the nominations, and I chose Pacino... while completely glossing over Anthony Hopkins. I was totally wrong. Not sure why I felt the need to berate his performance when I actually really liked it. Chalk it up to a brain fart. Anyway, I'll have to check out The Beach Bum. I've avoided it because it's from the director of Spring Breakers, which is one of my least favorite movies of all-time. I'm generally in to the "not for all tastes" movies, but I've been apprehensive about this one.
On to the next category... Best Actress. I know you were Lupita or bust with this category. I'm in agreement with you. Like i said earlier, her performance(s) were not just the best of the year, but they were generational. Something that I think will be talked about and studied for a long long time. It's clear that the Academy has no intention of changing its ways, despite modest efforts to diversify ranks. Lupita's performance had everything you could possibly ask for, and yet she wasn't even given a chance to compete on the biggest stage of them all. Heaven forbid if the Academy would dare to nominate two people of color. Would the world implode? So here we are... honestly, I feel like skipping this category, but tradition is tradition. To me, it's one of the weaker categories in the whole show. Nothing against these performances, but nothing from these performances really screams cream of the crop to me.
Here are the nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Who will win: If I had to guess, I would say Renee Zellweger. Honestly, I'm tired of singing biopics and the almost automatic nomination for someone who looks and sounds like the person they are portraying. To answer your question from earlier, Rami Malek won for his color-by-numbers portrayal of Freddie Mercury (I had to look it up). That movie terrible and while Malek did an admirable job of playing the part, I didn't feel like he was anything special. I have not seen Judy, but it's being heralded as Zellweger's big comeback vehicle. Great. Awesome. Next.
Who should win: Of the women nominated, I'd go with Scar-Jo for Marriage Story. I feel like Adam Driver is getting most of the love (in for his performance in that movie, but Johansson was equally admirable in her role.
Snub: I'm sure you have much more to add about Lupita's historic snub, so I will go with Awkwafina in The Farewell. Confession: I didn't love The Farewell, but it had nothing to do with the sum of its parts. It was just too damn sad for me. Maybe I watched it in the wrong mood, but I felt like if I wanted to see people cry for 2 hours, I'd go to an actual funeral. That's not to say I hated it... I'm actually wanting to give it another viewing because I don't think I was fair to it in my initial viewing. That being said, Awkwafina deserves to be in that group of 5. Her character felt lived-in and real in a way that these nominees didn't. But, you know, can't break the one woman of color rule.
AH:
Oh man, I loved Spring Breakers -- which i admit is not for everyone's tastes and if you hated it you should definitely steer clear of The Beach Bum because in that movie writer-director Harmony Korine doubles down on that aesthetic and goes even further.
Ok so this category is easily the most infuriating to me and I'm not even sure where to begin. For some reason, Renee Zellweger has been sort of crowned since the beginning of the season, even though the film she's in has been roundly greeted with only so-so reviews. I haven't seen it and I actually quite like her as an actress (especially her wonderful performance in Nurse Betty) but I have never understood this comeback narrative around her. First of all, she already has an Oscar, so shouldn't the nomination be enough of a welcome back? And it's not like Mickey Rourke situation where they had literally not starred in almost any legit movies in decades, she simply had a string of flops recently and had fallen off the A-list.
I love how for white actresses that's the bar you have to hit. Oh you slightly altered your appearance (Charlize Theron in Bombshell) here's a nomination. Meanwhile, Lupita Nyong'o gives the performance of a lifetime (and again, the performance that has by far won the most critics' awards) in a hugely successful, influential, culturally significant film but somehow she can't make it in, because the Academy deemed four spots for white actresses only (seemingly), while leaves actors like Nyong'o, Awkwafina and eventual nominee Cynthia Erivo to battle it out for the final spot.
It's worth noting, that two women of color have never been nominated for Best Actress in the same year since 1972 and I believe that was the only time this has happened. And only ONCE has a black woman ever won best actress. In fact, no other woman of color has EVER won this award. If you're looking for proof that these awards still, despite attempts to diversify, still represent the tastes of old white men, look no further than this category, where Erivo gets in for playing a slave (albeit a triumphant one) in a movie that also got mediocre reviews.
In fact the only performances here in movies that were well received are Scar Jo's and Saoirse Ronan's. Speaking of whom, she is only 25 years and already has her FOURTH Oscar nomination. Alfre Woodard, a beloved and acclaimed black character actress who is said to have given a career best performance in the little seen drama Clemency, has only been nominated once in her career -- back in 1983. I rest my case.
Who will win: Renee Zellweger. I need to see this film to understand why she's been viewed as such an inevitable sure thing. I suppose she gets a lot of kudos here for performing the Judy Garland numbers herself, which is no small feat. But I can't help but feel this is in keeping with the Oscars' self-congratulatory preoccupation with rewarding movies about the movies. Now, in the case of a nuanced take like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, this might be the right choice, but consider me dubious and it's hard to get past the feeling that what Lupita pulled off in Us is so much more impressive.
Who should win: This is tough for me since I am so turned off of this category. I thought Scar Jo was very good in Marriage Story but I am just not as blown away by that movie as so many other people are. I just couldn't get as emotionally invested as I think I was supposed to be. I guess of this group I was most impressed by Ronan. I know I just threw shade at the fact that she has been so lauded at such a young age, but she is a consistently terrific presence and she is the engine that makes Little Women run.
Snubs: If anyone deserved to be a 'double-nominee' this year it should have been Florence Pugh, who blew me away in Midsommar in addition to Little Women. Clearly there is a horror bias at the Oscars, because Toni Collette should have been here for Hereditary the year before -- ugh -- just thinking about all these snubs makes me furious. Like Awkwafina, who was so wonderful in The Farewell, giving a touching, funny performance that was both relatable and rewarding. I think you should give that one another chance -- it definitely is a sad movie -- but I found it more life affirming than depressing.
And last but not least I want to give a shoutout to Ana de Armas who steals Knives Out in an incredibly winning performance as the hero of that cool comedic thrill of a movie. I'm really excited to see what she does next and I'm glad she's getting to show she's more than the 'babe from Blade Runner 2049).
BW:
Moving on to our next category, Best Actor, where we have a couple pretty glaring snubs... perhaps not on the same level as ignoring Lupita Nyong'o, but still pretty frustrating. Going back to sports for a minute, there's all these unsaid rules that govern the game. Don't show up the pitcher. If so, expect to get beaned during your next at bat. The list goes on and on. I bring this up, because it seems like The Academy operates similarly. However, in this case, they seem to have an unwritten rule that states, "we will not nominate you or reward you with a win, no matter how good your performance is, if you've had a history of making "Razzy" worthy movies." I'm looking directly at Adam Sandler and Eddie Murphy here. Both gave extremely worthy (I'd argue career rejuvenating) performances in Uncut Gems and Dolemite Is My Name, respectively. While I have yet to see Dolemite, Adam Sandler was a force of nature in my favorite movie of the year, Uncut Gems. I know he's given great performances in the past when given the chance, but I didn't know he had THAT performance in him. He absolutely owns every frame of that movie. Same, from what I've heard, with Murphy. Hollywood loves a comeback, except if you've made Jack & Jill or Norbit in your past. This refusal to nominate based on the merits of a singular performance vs the entirety of a person's career is extremely frustrating.
Looking at this category, there's 2 really strong performances in Phoenix and DiCaprio, a good to great performance from Adam Driver and then an OK (as you've written) performance from Jonathan Pryce in a "meh" movie. I haven't seen Antonio Banderas in Pain And Glory, so I'll withhold judgment for now.
Here are the nominees:
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
Who Will Win: Phoenix. How are we still getting all-time great interpretations of an iconic character after all these years? From Nicholson to Ledger and now Phoenix, we've seen 3 wholly original takes on the classic Batman villain. Could we have another instance of two different actors being awarded for playing the same character (after Brando and DeNiro winning for playing Vito Corleone)? I sure think so. Every time I see Joker, it grows in stature with me. Phoenix stretched his body and mind to the limit in his portrayal of Arthur Fleck/Joker. I think he takes home a much deserved Oscar for this one.
Who Should Win: Of the people nominated, it should definitely be Phoenix. A lot of people are giving love to Adam Driver in Marriage Story, but I wasn't as blown away by his performance as the critics. Sure, the argument scene between the two leads will go down as a memorable one, but I don't know if it's enough for Driver to overtake Phoenix. I enjoyed DiCaprio's "actor coming to grips with his life and career" performance much better, but he just won a couple years ago and Brad Pitt seems to be the one who will win for this movie.
Snubs: Besides the two I mentioned earlier, a lot of people are mentioning Taron Egerton in Rocketman. While I think it's extremely interesting that he re-recorded all of Elton John's music himself, and that the movie seems to be a non-traditional music biopic, do we really need ANOTHER person nominated for one of these movies? I don't think so.
What are you thoughts?
AH:
I definitely think this category showed off a bias against actors who are deemed 'not serious'. Every once in a while a Steve Carrell or Melissa McCarthy breaks through, and she was even able to get a nomination -- God forbid -- for a comedic performance. Of course in Uncut Gems, Sandler was both funny AND tragic. I went in expected good things, but was just blown away. With Eddie Murphy, his greatness is less of a surprise for me. I always believed he had a role like Dolemite in him and was just frustrated that either he or filmmakers weren't willing to go there. It's absurd that they aren't in this group. Although it may have been too much of a stretch from both of them to make it.
I too haven't seen Pain and Glory, but I hear Banderas is incredible in it and he's someone who has sort of just needed the right part to show off what he can do. I honestly feel like I missed something when I watched The Two Popes. I'd heard Pryce's name bandied about for a while as a likely shoo-in and so I guess I was just expecting more from him and that movie. As far as the final three goes, they're hard to argue with. Like the movie itself, I think Phoenix's work is not for everyone's tastes but I think it's still undeniably effective. DiCaprio has never been funnier and more vulnerable than he is in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. In a way I think it's a far better performance than the one he finally won for in The Revenant, which mostly physical. And Adam Driver is emerging rapidly as one of the most interesting actors of his generation, equally at home in blockbusters, quirky comedies and serious drama. I think he is the best thing about Marriage Story, where he is probably aided tremendously by the fact that he is clearly a proxy for writer-director Noam Baumbach.
Who will win: Until very recently I would have said Driver, if only because he is so well liked and the performance/movie is far less polarizing than Joker. But now it seems like all the momentum is with Phoenix. It's wild think that we will now have two actors winning Oscars for playing this character (I think Don Corleone and Queen Elizabeth are the only two other characters to have this distinction). It's definitely an unforgettable turn and Phoenix, who has been amazing for years and never won, is arguably due.
Who should win: Although I probably enjoyed DiCaprio the most, it's Phoenix for me here. It's not just the physical transformation, although that is impressive. You just can't take your eyes off him in this movie, he is by turns pathetic, disturbed and scary -- this is not someone you necessarily root for and not someone you entirely pity. It's just someone doing through a kind of descent. I never thought someone could make the Joker character fresh again and he really did.
Snubs: I thought Robert DeNiro was phenomenal in The Irishman. I get that he is often an audience surrogate and the observer of the action around him. And yes, the de-aging on him isn't quite as seamless as it is with Pacino and Pecsi -- but he is the broken heart of that movie. And he totally owns the last stretch of the movie which is its more powerful, profound element. He, like Sandler and Murphy, has had a very checkered record especially of late (remember Dirty Grandpa) and I think he's often taken for granted. He deserved a nomination. If it were a weaker year I'd have gone for Daniel Craig in Knives Out, I just thought he was a delight and brilliantly played against his suave persona. But again these awards are so risk averse I knew something like that would never happen.
BW:
I agree with your assessment of DeNiro's performance, and I think it will eventually get recognized for its greatness (at least in word of mouth). The end scene, alone, was one of the more powerful scenes that Scorsese has ever put to film.
Moving on to our next category, Best Director, there's once again a lack of female representation and, of course, we only have one person of color nominated. With that being said, I think this is one of the stronger categories in this year's Oscars. In a perfect world, Greta Gerwig or countless others would get the nod. I know we have this discussion every year, but I really wish that directing would expand to reflect the same number of nominees as Best Picture, since the two really go hand in hand. I get why they limit it to 5, but there's always some really glaring snubs. Circling back to this year, I'm not really sure who I would take off to give one of the snubs a shot at the Oscar. All 5 directors told uniquely compelling stories, and in my opinion, all deserve to be there. I think there are definite snubs in this category, but I don't think they reach Lupita Nyong'o levels of WTF.
Here's the nominees:
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Who will win: Bong Joon Ho. I think we'll have a split director/picture win this year. Parasite is a shoo-in to win Best Foreign film instead of Best Picture, similar to Roma from last year. I have yet to see Parasite, but from what I've heard and read, it's a near perfect film. It comes out on home video this Tuesday and I'm already chomping at the bit to see it.
Who should win: Honestly, every director in this category can and should win. I won't be mad if any of them take away the statue. If I had to put a name above others on this list it would be Tarantino, who could go his entire career without a directing Oscar... especially if his 10 films and done rule turns out to be true. He'll probably take home a screenplay win again, but I'm not sure there's enough movement to give him a directing Oscar as well. It would be a shame if he misses out on being recognized as one of the all-time greats. I also really liked Todd Phillips take on an iconic character, but his nomination is probably all he's going to get here... and I'm OK with it.
Snubs: I'll throw out some other names here. Olivia Wilde for Booksmart, an historically overlooked gem of a movie. Every inch of that film felt lived in and the characters had life to them in way that wasn't just "The female Superbad" marketing campaign the movie got. My other name is Jordan Peele for Us, which was in my opinion, an improvement in storytelling and directing over Get Out. For some reason, maybe the early release date, it's been pretty much ignored.
Who's your top director?
AH:
I agree this is one of those years where several directors stepped up and did career best work while putting a uniquely personal stamp on their productions. For instance, Tarantino and Scorsese, who made essentially the culmination of their entire filmographies. So I don't see how you keep them off. Bong Joon-ho made his bonafide masterpiece -- as great as all the performances in Parasite are -- it's his film from start to finish. He belongs here. And 1917, as a technical achievement alone, justifies Mendes being here -- although I don't think he deserves to win over the competition. Although, it would be so typical of the Oscars to gives Sam Mendes a second best director award (albeit for a superior film to his first winner) while preventing Tarantino from getting his first (for directing).
To me the weakest link here is Todd Phillips. I think there's no denying what a creative leap his Joker was for him. Phillips had previously been best known for broad comedies like Old School and The Hangover. But I feel like what Greta Gerwig did with Little Women was just much more impressive and daring. She took one a beloved book and completely revitalized the narrative with sophisticated nonlinear storytelling that only enhancing the story's emotional impact. And this is only her second film. There can be no doubt now that she is a major filmmaker and while her snub hurts, I think she'll be impossible to ignore as her career behind the camera continues.
Who will win: This is a really tough one. I can really see any of the directors besides Phillips winning (unless Joker has a VERY good night). I worry that all the momentum seems to be shifting to Mendes, who would be a 'safe' pick here. But I honestly have no idea. I think Scorsese and his film have been unjustly diminished by Netflix bias and griping about its length. So i think between the remaining three -- I'm gonna say Tarantino -- just because his film was very popular, it really is a career best for him and I think Academy voters will see this as potentially their last opportunity to reward him. The Oscars have famously failed to ever award (not counting career achievement trophies) some of the greatest directors of all time: Altman, Kubrick, Lumet, Hitchcock -- just to name a few. I suspect that they won't want to make that mistake again.
Who should win: I here you on Joon Ho and if he (or his film in the Best Picture category) won I would have zero issues with it, but I suspect he will be rewarded for Foreign Film as a consolation prize. I love The Departed but The Irishman is an even better film, but alas Scorsese has one and his legacy is secure. I like 1917, but I also think it's a notch below the others for me, and I've said my piece on Phillips. So for me, the sentimental choice is Tarantino. He's aged well, like a fine wine. And it's a thrill to see him maturing as a filmmaker if unfortunately at the end of his career. He'll always will be polarizing, as will his movie, but his impact on American cinema is important and undeniable.
Snubs: I totally agree about both Olivia Wilde and Jordan Peele, both suffered from early release dates and genre biases. I am sure Peele will be back someday and I hope Wilde continues down the path that she's on. I am probably the biggest Hustlers fan out there and so I will also sing the praises of Lorene Scafaria, who also wrote that film! I also thought James Gray's Ad Astra was fantastic and underrated. Lulu Wang did a fabulous job with The Farewell. Ari Aster showed he's a master with his second movie Midsommar. Then there's Rian Johnson's tour de force with Knives Out. And for the love of God the Safdie Brothers. Honestly the more I think about it the failure of Uncut Gems to get any recognition whatsoever is the best proof you need of this whole
Check out this piece on directors'
favorite 2019 movies, it's a much better glimpse into what was truly great from last year.
Anyway, moving on to our final category, Best Picture. You and I have both said that, nomination snubs aside, 2019 was a great year for films. It seems like director's are finally getting some opportunities to take chances. Even in typical genre fare, we had something like Joker that never would have been made even 5 years or so ago. Jordan Peele is still crushing it and pushing boundaries, the Safdie Brothers (won't forget them again!) are fresh and exciting, and we got an all-time effort from perhaps the greatest American filmmaker of all-time, Martin Scorsese. And, like it or not, Netflix is filling the void for weightier films. It was a great year to be a film fan.
Looking at Best Picture, we're still stuck in a weird place where the Academy can nominate 10 films, but doesn't seem to ever do it. Would it kill them to put one more film in this category to make it an even 10? I don't think it would lessen any of the other films if, say, Us or Uncut Gems were included in this category. Why make a rule and then weirdly interpret it? Looking at just the 9 films that made the cut, it's looking like it's coming down to 2 or 3 possible winners. I was inclined to say that The Irishman had a serious chance at this category, but I don't think that the Netflix bias will be lifted here. I was also looking at Joker potentially having a big night, but I'm not getting those vibes anymore. To me, it comes down to 1917 or Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. Two really well-done films in typical Oscar bait genres (war movies and movies about the industry). I keep hearing buzz that 1917 has all the momentum, but will the Academy pass up an opportunity to reward a Quentin Tarantino film again?
Here's the nominees:
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”“Parasite”
Who will win: 1917. I wouldn't be shocked by about half of these, but I'm going with the hot hand here. Parasite is another strong contender, but I think that the voters will think that the foreign film win will be enough for it.
Who should win: Of the films nominated, I'm going with Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. It was Tarantino's most accessible and personal film, and it has all the pieces that Academy voters usually love. A strong case could be made for The Irishman here as well, but I don't think Hollywood is ready to recognize a "streaming" movie just yet.
Snubs: Uncut Gems! I can't explain the lack of love for this "gem" of a movie (Thank you! I'll be here all night. Try the veal). Two years in a row my favorite movies have failed to get a nomination for the big award (Annihilation last year). Maybe they were just too out there for the (clearly) traditional voters. Us is the other major snub in this category. I get that it's a horror movie, and that genre has typically been avoided like the plague, but come on!
That's it for me. I always had a blast, and if this is the last year we do this exchange, I just want to say how much I enjoy doing this with you. I hope that 2020 is another strong year for films and that you're primed and ready come this time next year. Who knows... maybe they'll get the nominations right next year and we'll have plenty of optimistic things to write about. JKLOLOL!
AH:
I agree that it was a great year for movies — which is part of why narrowing down Best Director to only five feels impossible. It was also yet another year where almost no one could agree about this years crop of films. With the exception of Parasite, which I’ve never heard an unkind word about, none of the Best Picture nominees is universally beloved.
Personally, I’m not sure why there is so much vitriol directed at Joker. It blew me away the first time I saw it and I’ll admit to downgrading it a bit the second time because the shock value was gone. But I still think it’s a provocative movie with lots of style and ambition — and even if you knock it for being derivative of King of Comedy/Taxi Driver (and it is). It still took balls to make a comic book inspired blockbuster influenced by decidedly dark, uncommercial films like those.
That being said, I’m shocked it’s leading every other movie, it clearly struck a chord. The same goes for 1917 — a film I honk is very, very good but not as great as apparently the awards community does. I suppose the race is between these two and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Parasite being a dark horse longshot.
Although it’s the best reviewed film of the bunch, it looks like The Irishman either peaked too early or never stood a chance.
The others while they have their virtues, don’t seem to have a real shot at a win.
Who will win: I’m worried it’ll be 1917, which feels like the flavor of the moment right now but I’m going to go with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood since an affectionate ode to the industry will almost always trump a technical marvel at the Oscars and the movie is widely accepted to be one of Tarantino’s best if not his best. This feels like a way to honor not just this movie but his whole career.
What should win: If Parasite or The Irishman won I wouldn’t shed a tear but I feel like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is simply fantastic and feels weirdly relevant even though it’s steeped in the past. I hate when they ticket split best picture and Director (cause I’m anal) so here’s hoping Tarantino goes two for two here.
Snubs: I conquer re: Uncut Gems and Us. Booksmart maybe could have had a shot if it hadn’t bombed so hard. There was some chatter that Knives Out could have made the cut as the a tenth pick (or id have no problem replacing the just ok Ford v. Ferrari. Oh well, Either way, probably for the first time in decades, I won’t be watching!
