It's that time of year again. It's the 8th Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza featuring movie blogger extraordinaire, Adam Howard.
BW: Alright, let's get started. It's welcome back for the 8th annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza. 2020 was an all-time downer of a year. Theaters have been, for the most part, closed for over a year. It was the first year without a Marvel movie release in what seems like forever. Will Smith's Bad Boys For Life was the last major release before the world closed and it lead the American box office for a truncated year. And yet, 2020 (and the first quarter of 2021) was a quietly decent year for quality movies. It looks like this year's crop of nominees has, with some exceptions, done a decent course correction out of Oscars So White territory. While there were some notable snubs (cough cough Da 5 Bloods), it was nice to see a slate of nominees that represented more than just the criminally underrepresented straight white male demographic (sarcasm alert!). With almost everything getting a straight to streaming release, I was actually able to see a decent amount of the nominated films/performances (I still need to see Minari, but I've seen 6 out of 8 Best Picture nominees), so I should actually be able to carry my own weight in this back-and-forth this year. Can we even call this the Oscars if almost none of these films got a theatrical release? With that being said, our first category, Best Supporting Actress, is the one where I saw the least amount of performances. It looks like it has one of the biggest WTF nominees in a long time. Of course, I'm speaking of Glenn Close's Razzie nominated performance in critically derided Hillbilly Elegy. On to the nominations.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)
Will
Win: Yuh-Jung Youn - I know I said I'd be carrying my weight this year,
but I have no idea with this category. Minari seems like a late
critical favorite, so I'm going with Youn here. I think Amanda Seyfried
was just fine playing an old-timey Hollywood character, but it wasn't
that great. I haven't seen The Father either, so I'll go with Youn in
this category.
Should Win: Maria Bakalova - In a year like no other, I'd love to see the Oscars take a chance on something different. Bakalova was the heart of the Borat sequel and I'd love to see comedy recognized for once.
Snubs: This
was a hard one, but it's bonkers to me that Glenn Close is on this list
for her performance in a Razzie worthy movie. She pushed out Jodie
Foster in her Golden Globe winning performance in The Mauritanian.
Who takes home your statue?
AH: Hey man -- as you know I have been basically boycotting the Oscars, but I can't resist following these races just a bit and of course I always have fun playing the prediction game with you. Definitely, the strangest year yet -- I for one found this year's crop of films a bit of a letdown after a very strong 2019 and the fact that I couldn't see most of the films I loved in theaters at all is a bummer too. But I do agree that this year's nominees are MOSTLY on point. The Spike Lee, Delroy Lindo and Regina King snubs do hurt, and I was really pulling for Bill Murray to get in there for On the Rocks, but I'm generally pleased with what's here. Definitely check out Minari when you get a chance, you won't be disappointed.
This supporting actress race is really hard to predict. There's the Glenn Close thing. I can't think of an actress who has made more efforts to win an Oscar with more mediocre movies -- Albert Nobbs, The Wife and now, HIllbilly Elegy, a movie I didn't see but heard universally horrible things about it. That's never stopped the academy before -- plenty of actors have won trophies for bad performances in bad movies (even Meryl Streep did it with The Iron Lady!) but something tells me that giving it to Glenn Close for such a polarizing movie would spark this biggest backlash since Crash.
Will Win: This is really tough, but I'm gonna go out on a limb as say Amanda Seyfriend. She was my favorite part of a movie that really left me cold and she's been an underrated actress for some time now. Olivia Coleman just won Best Actress, I love Maria Bakalova but the Academy probably sees her nomination as a win and while Yuh-Jung Youn is fantastic in Minari the fact that she is pretty unknown to American voters may hurt her.
Should Win: I think I'll go with Bakalova here. She was a real comedic revelation in Borat Subsequent Film, and her performance was one of the most memorable I've seen all year. But I'd be happy really if anyone won here but Glenn Close, who I love, but who shouldn't win for bad work.
Snubs: Nothing comes to mind in what feels like a very lean year. I know it's not eligible because it's technically a television film -- but Letitia Wright is fantastic in Steve McQueen's Mangrove, so I'll just give her a shout out here.
BW: think you can absolutely throw Steve McQueen's Mangrove in there. If everything is going straight to TV, aren't they all television films?
Moving on... next up is supporting actor. Another head scratcher in this slate of nominees. We have the two de facto leads of Judas And The Black Messiah competing against each other in the supporting category. This was another WTF move by the academy. I get putting Daniel Kaluuya in this category. He was the best part of the so-so Messiah, albeit in a role that you and I both agree could have used a little more screen time or backstory. But to also nominate Lakeith Stanfield, who in my opinion was more of a lead character in that movie, was confusing. He's also just good, but not really that great in the film. I think there were some other actors that could have made this list over him. I do love that Paul Raci made it into the final 5 in this category. He was one of the best parts of the fantastic "The Sound Of Metal." Sacha Baron Cohen had the showiest role in The Trial Of The Chicago 7, even if he was a little too over the top at times. Leslie Odom Jr. was also phenomenal as Sam Cooke in One Night In Miami. Overall, I'd say this is a pretty solid group of nominees, with one misstep.
Here are the nominees:
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Will Win: Kaluuya. Like I said, he's the best part of the somewhat disappointing Judas And The Black Messiah. He's been killing it for years, so it'll be nice to see him get some critical recognition, even if it should have already happened for Get Out.
Should Win: Kaluuya or Raci. I'll be happy if either of these guys walk away with the Oscar. I had never really heard of Paul Raci before, but I definitely hope to see more of him going forward. I hope he has a post-Oscar nominated career similar to Mark Rylance, where he shows up in meaty supporting roles in prestige movies.
Snubs: The biggest one for me would have to be Chadwick Boseman for his role as the leader (both physical and spiritual) of Da 5 Bloods. I know he's probably going to win for his movie stealing performance in Ma Rainey, but I was hoping for a double nomination for the gone-too-soon actor. The bigger crime, which we'll get to later, was Delroy Lindo, but Boseman was almost as critical to the quality of that movie.
Who is your best supporting actor?
AH: I pretty much agree with everything you said. Every year there's always a left field nominee, and usually in the supporting categories and this year's WTF is definitely LaKeith Stanfield. His performance is actually part of what didn't work for me in that film and while Daniel Kaluuya was great I feel like he didn't get enough screentime to give a fully realized portrait of Fred Hampton. Still, this is a mostly unassailable group and like you I am thrilled to see Paul Raci make the cut for his incredibly moving work in Sound of Metal.
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya. Sometimes these things are just all about momentum and I feel like he has it. right now. A couple months ago I would have said Leslie Odom,Jr. but I feel like his film peaked early and most people are just now embracing/seeing Judas and the Black Messiah. I actually think he made a strong case for winning back in 2017 for Get Out and should have been nominated for the following year's Widows. I don't love the movie but it's hard to knock his performance in it.
Should Win: Paul Raci. I will say Sacha Baron Cohen was probably my favorite part of the Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie whose over-the-top earnestness irked me throughout. It's great that he's finally getting recognized for his acting, not just his comic chops. I think Kaluuya is such a great young actor and is deserving enough here. Same goes for Leslie Odom Jr, who was also fantastic in One Night from Miami. But the Raci performance was just haunting and so real. He won't win, but it was a stunning, unforgettable work.
Snubs: Bill Murray. For me this one hurts. After years of some just ok movies, he came roaring back with his best turn in years in Sofia Coppola's underrated and bittersweet On the Rocks and I was really hoping he'd be recognized here. Now, I fear he'll be one of those actors who never got the Oscar that we'll be kicking ourselves about years later (think Peter Sellers). I also think Chadwick Boseman could easily have been recognized here too for his stellar work in Da 5 Bloods. That was a case of note perfect casting and symbolism. I think he's had the most incredible posthumous streak of performances of anyone since James Dean.
BW: Moving on to the Best Actress category, I think the nominees in this category played out as expected. I think the Academy, for the most part, got this category right. For me, I think it's a 1-2 horse race between the heavy favorite Francis McDormand vs. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey (filmed in Pittsburgh!). Both were excellent in almost polar opposites in terms of their character's personalities. McDormand gave a beautiful, understated performance in Nomadland as a woman hitting the road and figuring out her life after the plant in her town closed up shop. What I loved about that movie and her performance is that there was beauty in its simplicity. You could almost watch Nomadland as a silent art installation and still come away moved. On the other hand, Davis' performance shined in the bigness of Ma Rainey's personality. From her singing, to the way she conducts herself in the studio, her character feels lived in and timeless. The other nominees are kind of here for the prestige of having been nominated, though Andra Day did pick up a Golden Globe for her performance as Billie Holiday, so we'll see. It's a shame that Vanessa Kirby's raw performance of a mother dealing with loss in Pieces Of Woman is overshadowed by its connection to Shia Labeouf's toxicity because she delivers a hell of a performance. Carrie Mulligan is also the best part of the up-and-down Promising Young Woman, though there is some chatter about her gaining momentum. It would be a shame if she wins over the big 2 because you and I both agree that all of the pieces in that movie didn't quite fit together perfectly.
Here's the nominees:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Will Win: Frances McDormand, though I think it's closer than we expect. She's already won two Oscars for leading roles. Can she pull off a third? I'd love to see Viola Davis finally get recognized for a leading performance.
Should Win: Either of the two that I mentioned before are equally deserving to take home the top prize.
Snubs: I'm drawing a blank here, but I've seen Zendaya's name thrown around as being snubbed for Malcolm & Marie, but I haven't seen that movie and can't speak on her performance. I loved Cristin Milioti in Palm Springs and it would have been a nice surprise nomination, but I'm not really coming up with too many snubs? Who would get left off this list to make room for someone else?
Who is your best actress?
AH: I agree with you on the slate of nominees feeling like a forgone conclusion but I see this race as way more wide open. Frances McDormand was fantastic in Nomadland, I'd argue far better than in her showier turn in Three Billboards which won her Best Actress just three years ago. This would be her third Best Actress trophy and second in just four years and so something tells me they'll want to spread the wealth around. As for Viola Davis, she is now Oscar royalty as the most nominated black actress in history, but I feel like as strong as she is in Ma Rainey (it's named after her after all) the Chadwick Boseman performance really steals the show and I don't think support for that movie is strong enough to reward them both. That leaves Vanessa Kirby -- whose movie I didn't see, Carey Mulligan and Andra Day, who surprised everyone by winning the Golden Globe for her performance as Billie Holiday.
Will Win: Carey Mulligan. I think the mediocre reception to the films of Kirby and Day, but not their performances will cancel them out. And I think Mulligan may pull off an upset here. She's universally viewed as the best part of a relatively polarizing movie. And here's the thing, clearly the Oscar voters love the movie because it made the Best Picture and Best Director races. This may be the best and only place to reward it. I could be wrong -- and I often am. But this is my wild card pick.
Should Win: Frances McDormand. I wish she was winning for this instead of Three Billboards, which is a movie that really left a bad taste in my mouth. But the best performance is the best performance and her work in Nomadland was just so moving and real. You're right about it almost playing like something out of a silent movie. She's definitely operating on a level that few actresses get to at this stage of their careers and I can't wait to see her in her husband Joel Coen's upcoming adaptation of MacBeth, alongside Denzel Washington.
Snubs: Elizabeth Moss in The Invisible Man. She was never going to get a nomination for such a commercial genre movie, but Moss has really been on a roll playing bugged out people on the end of their rope (Her Smell) or slightly possessed (Us) and i think she is so consistently underrated.
BW: Next up is Best Actor, which this year, is the category that best exemplifies the highs and lows of caring about these award shows. Overall, I think it's a very solid slate of nominees with a major major missing piece. It feels like it's going to be Chadwick Boseman's award to lose, and rightly so. His brilliance was on full display from the moment he stepped on screen in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. A victory for him will be bittersweet because of the excitement of him finally being rewarded for his craft and the harsh reality that he is not here anymore. Going down the line, I love that Riz Ahmed is nominated for Sound Of Metal. He totally owned that movie and it's great to see him on this list. While I have not seen Minari, I've heard nothing but good things about it and Steven Yeun's performance. I thought Gary Oldman gave it his all in the uneven Mank, and Hollywood loves to celebrate itself. This wasn't a surprising nomination. I haven't seen The Father, but I feel like Anthony Hopkins has reached Meryl Streep territory where he gets an obligatory nomination every time he's in something of value. The biggest miss here is obviously Delroy Lindo for his career defining performance in Da 5 Bloods. How he can be universally left out of this award season is beyond me. I don't think I've been so captured by a performance in a long time and for him to be left out entirely is almost insulting to the other nominees. While it will be nice for them to win, it'd be like winning the NBA title in the two years that Michael Jordan was playing baseball. Like it's great to win, but you didn't beat the best competition. Anyway, on to the nominees.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
Will Win: Boseman. Totally deserving. Totally brilliant performance. Totally devastating that he's gone. Wakanda Forever!
Should Win: Boseman will and should win. I also wouldn't be sad if Riz Ahmed takes home the prize.
Snub: Delroy Lindo. Is this the biggest acting snub of all-time? It has to be up there.
Who is your best actor?
AH: I agree that this is a MOSTLY strong slate of nominees, and yes, Chadwick Boseman will be coronated on Oscar night -- and he's deserving. But Delroy Lindo gave the performance of THE YEAR as far as I'm concerned. So basically, this is the second year in a row where my favorite performance of the year was snubbed (last year it was Lupita Nyong'o in Us). Here's where I differ -- I don't think Anthony Hopkins has been over-lauded in his career. This is his first nomination in over 20 years (I believe) and based on everything I've heard, The Father is supposed to be return his Remains of the Day level form. I haven't seen it yet, so I'll reserve judgment but to me the glaring error here is Gary Oldman, a very good but also problematic actor (it's strange to me that his off-screen awfulness has been given a pass unlike so many others) who is for me the thing that worked THE LEAST about Mank. I'll never understand why Fincher felt Oldman needed to play someone 25 years younger when there are many excellent age appropriate actors who could have played the part just as well or better. His performance was very one-note for me. But hey I know a lot of people who think Mank is a masterpiece, so what do I know.
Riz Ahmed and Steven Yeun were both amazing in their films and feel like they're going to join folks like Michael B. Jordan in the pantheon of modern day leading men -- all sex symbols, all unconventional stars -- all pretty fantastic is almost everything they do, but ...
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman would be and should be right beside him. It's hard to know if his performance in Ma Rainey would have had quite the same impact had it not had the mystique of having been his last performance. The movie is good but I did feel like it failed to rise above feeling like a filmed play at times. But Boseman was a singular talent.
Should win: Without having seen the Hopkins performance, probably Boseman, although I wouldn’t be mad if Yeun or Ahmed won for their less showy performances.
Snub: Delroy Lindo. Full stop. I’d also say Sacha Baron Cohen for his remarkable performance as Borat, but he’s getting recognized for The Trial of the Chicago 7, so I’m good with that.
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