It's that time of year again. It's the 8th Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza featuring movie blogger extraordinaire, Adam Howard.
BW: Alright, let's get started. It's welcome back for the 8th annual
Oscar Pick-A-Palooza. 2020 was an all-time downer of a year. Theaters
have been, for the most part, closed for over a year. It was the first
year without a Marvel movie release in what seems like forever. Will
Smith's Bad Boys For Life was the last major release before the world
closed and it lead the American box office for a truncated year. And
yet, 2020 (and the first quarter of 2021) was a quietly decent year for
quality movies. It looks like this year's crop of nominees has, with
some exceptions, done a decent course correction out of Oscars So White
territory. While there were some notable snubs (cough cough Da 5
Bloods), it was nice to see a slate of nominees that represented more
than just the criminally underrepresented straight white male
demographic (sarcasm alert!). With almost everything getting a straight
to streaming release, I was actually able to see a decent amount of the
nominated films/performances (I still need to see Minari, but I've seen
6 out of 8 Best Picture nominees), so I should actually be able to
carry my own weight in this back-and-forth this year. Can we even call
this the Oscars if almost none of these films got a theatrical release?
With that being said, our first category, Best Supporting Actress, is
the one where I saw the least amount of performances. It looks like it
has one of the biggest WTF nominees in a long time. Of course, I'm
speaking of Glenn Close's Razzie nominated performance in critically
derided Hillbilly Elegy. On to the nominations.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)
Will
Win: Yuh-Jung Youn - I know I said I'd be carrying my weight this year,
but I have no idea with this category. Minari seems like a late
critical favorite, so I'm going with Youn here. I think Amanda Seyfried
was just fine playing an old-timey Hollywood character, but it wasn't
that great. I haven't seen The Father either, so I'll go with Youn in
this category.
Should Win: Maria Bakalova - In a
year like no other, I'd love to see the Oscars take a chance on
something different. Bakalova was the heart of the Borat sequel and I'd
love to see comedy recognized for once.
Snubs: This
was a hard one, but it's bonkers to me that Glenn Close is on this list
for her performance in a Razzie worthy movie. She pushed out Jodie
Foster in her Golden Globe winning performance in The Mauritanian.
Who takes home your statue?
AH: Hey man -- as you know I have been basically boycotting the Oscars, but I
can't resist following these races just a bit and of course I always
have fun playing the prediction game with you. Definitely, the strangest
year yet -- I for one found this year's crop of films a bit of a
letdown after a very strong 2019 and the fact that I couldn't see most
of the films I loved in theaters at all is a bummer too. But I do agree
that this year's nominees are MOSTLY on point. The Spike Lee, Delroy
Lindo and Regina King snubs do hurt, and I was really pulling for Bill
Murray to get in there for On the Rocks, but I'm generally pleased with
what's here. Definitely check out Minari when you get a chance, you
won't be disappointed.
This supporting actress race
is really hard to predict. There's the Glenn Close thing. I can't think
of an actress who has made more efforts to win an Oscar with more
mediocre movies -- Albert Nobbs, The Wife and now, HIllbilly Elegy, a
movie I didn't see but heard universally horrible things about it.
That's never stopped the academy before -- plenty of actors have won
trophies for bad performances in bad movies (even Meryl Streep did it
with The Iron Lady!) but something tells me that giving it to Glenn
Close for such a polarizing movie would spark this biggest backlash
since Crash.
Will Win: This is really tough,
but I'm gonna go out on a limb as say Amanda Seyfriend. She was my
favorite part of a movie that really left me cold and she's been an
underrated actress for some time now. Olivia Coleman just won Best
Actress, I love Maria Bakalova but the Academy probably sees her
nomination as a win and while Yuh-Jung Youn is fantastic in Minari the
fact that she is pretty unknown to American voters may hurt her.
Should
Win: I think I'll go with Bakalova here. She was a real comedic
revelation in Borat Subsequent Film, and her performance was one of the
most memorable I've seen all year. But I'd be happy really if anyone won
here but Glenn Close, who I love, but who shouldn't win for bad work.
Snubs:
Nothing comes to mind in what feels like a very lean year. I know it's
not eligible because it's technically a television film -- but Letitia
Wright is fantastic in Steve McQueen's Mangrove, so I'll just give her a
shout out here.
BW: think you can absolutely throw Steve
McQueen's Mangrove in there. If everything is going straight to TV,
aren't they all television films?
Moving
on... next up is supporting actor. Another head scratcher in this
slate of nominees. We have the two de facto leads of Judas And The
Black Messiah competing against each other in the supporting category.
This was another WTF move by the academy. I get putting Daniel Kaluuya
in this category. He was the best part of the so-so Messiah, albeit in a
role that you and I both agree could have used a little more screen
time or backstory. But to also nominate Lakeith Stanfield, who in my
opinion was more of a lead character in that movie, was confusing. He's
also just good, but not really that great in the film. I think there
were some other actors that could have made this list over him. I do
love that Paul Raci made it into the final 5 in this category. He was
one of the best parts of the fantastic "The Sound Of Metal." Sacha
Baron Cohen had the showiest role in The Trial Of The Chicago 7, even if
he was a little too over the top at times. Leslie Odom Jr. was also
phenomenal as Sam Cooke in One Night In Miami. Overall, I'd say this is
a pretty solid group of nominees, with one misstep.
Here are the nominees:
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Will
Win: Kaluuya. Like I said, he's the best part of the somewhat
disappointing Judas And The Black Messiah. He's been killing it for
years, so it'll be nice to see him get some critical recognition, even
if it should have already happened for Get Out.
Should
Win: Kaluuya or Raci. I'll be happy if either of these guys walk away
with the Oscar. I had never really heard of Paul Raci before, but I
definitely hope to see more of him going forward. I hope he has a
post-Oscar nominated career similar to Mark Rylance, where he shows up
in meaty supporting roles in prestige movies.
Snubs:
The biggest one for me would have to be Chadwick Boseman for his role
as the leader (both physical and spiritual) of Da 5 Bloods. I know he's
probably going to win for his movie stealing performance in Ma Rainey,
but I was hoping for a double nomination for the gone-too-soon actor.
The bigger crime, which we'll get to later, was Delroy Lindo, but
Boseman was almost as critical to the quality of that movie.
Who is your best supporting actor?
AH: I pretty much agree with everything you said. Every year there's always a
left field nominee, and usually in the supporting categories and this
year's WTF is definitely LaKeith Stanfield. His performance is actually
part of what didn't work for me in that film and while Daniel Kaluuya
was great I feel like he didn't get enough screentime to give a fully
realized portrait of Fred Hampton. Still, this is a mostly unassailable
group and like you I am thrilled to see Paul Raci make the cut for his
incredibly moving work in Sound of Metal.
Will win:
Daniel Kaluuya. Sometimes these things are just all about momentum and I
feel like he has it. right now. A couple months ago I would have said
Leslie Odom,Jr. but I feel like his film peaked early and most people
are just now embracing/seeing Judas and the Black Messiah. I actually
think he made a strong case for winning back in 2017 for Get Out and
should have been nominated for the following year's Widows. I don't love
the movie but it's hard to knock his performance in it.
Should
Win: Paul Raci. I will say Sacha Baron Cohen was probably my favorite
part of the Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie whose over-the-top
earnestness irked me throughout. It's great that he's finally getting
recognized for his acting, not just his comic chops. I think Kaluuya is
such a great young actor and is deserving enough here. Same goes for
Leslie Odom Jr, who was also fantastic in One Night from Miami. But the
Raci performance was just haunting and so real. He won't win, but it was
a stunning, unforgettable work.
Snubs: Bill
Murray. For me this one hurts. After years of some just ok movies, he
came roaring back with his best turn in years in Sofia Coppola's
underrated and bittersweet On the Rocks and I was really hoping he'd be
recognized here. Now, I fear he'll be one of those actors who never got
the Oscar that we'll be kicking ourselves about years later (think
Peter Sellers). I also think Chadwick Boseman could easily have been
recognized here too for his stellar work in Da 5 Bloods. That was a case
of note perfect casting and symbolism. I think he's had the most
incredible posthumous streak of performances of anyone since James Dean.
BW: Moving on to the Best
Actress category, I think the nominees in this category played out as
expected. I think the Academy, for the most part, got this category
right. For me, I think it's a 1-2 horse race between the heavy favorite
Francis McDormand vs. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey (filmed in
Pittsburgh!). Both were excellent in almost polar opposites in terms of
their character's personalities. McDormand gave a beautiful,
understated performance in Nomadland as a woman hitting the road and
figuring out her life after the plant in her town closed up shop. What I
loved about that movie and her performance is that there was beauty in
its simplicity. You could almost watch Nomadland as a silent art
installation and still come away moved. On the other hand, Davis'
performance shined in the bigness of Ma Rainey's personality. From her
singing, to the way she conducts herself in the studio, her character
feels lived in and timeless. The other nominees are kind of here for
the prestige of having been nominated, though Andra Day did pick up a
Golden Globe for her performance as Billie Holiday, so we'll see. It's a
shame that Vanessa Kirby's raw performance of a mother dealing with
loss in Pieces Of Woman is overshadowed by its connection to Shia
Labeouf's toxicity because she delivers a hell of a performance. Carrie
Mulligan is also the best part of the up-and-down Promising Young
Woman, though there is some chatter about her gaining momentum. It
would be a shame if she wins over the big 2 because you and I both agree
that all of the pieces in that movie didn't quite fit together
perfectly.
Here's the nominees:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Will
Win: Frances McDormand, though I think it's closer than we expect.
She's already won two Oscars for leading roles. Can she pull off a
third? I'd love to see Viola Davis finally get recognized for a leading
performance.
Should Win: Either of the two that I mentioned before are equally deserving to take home the top prize.
Snubs:
I'm drawing a blank here, but I've seen Zendaya's name thrown around as
being snubbed for Malcolm & Marie, but I haven't seen that movie
and can't speak on her performance. I loved Cristin Milioti in Palm
Springs and it would have been a nice surprise nomination, but I'm not
really coming up with too many snubs? Who would get left off this list
to make room for someone else?
Who is your best actress?
AH: I agree with you on the slate of nominees feeling like a forgone
conclusion but I see this race as way more wide open. Frances McDormand
was fantastic in Nomadland, I'd argue far better than in her showier
turn in Three Billboards which won her Best Actress just three years
ago. This would be her third Best Actress trophy and second in just four
years and so something tells me they'll want to spread the wealth
around. As for Viola Davis, she is now Oscar royalty as the most
nominated black actress in history, but I feel like as strong as she is
in Ma Rainey (it's named after her after all) the Chadwick Boseman
performance really steals the show and I don't think support for that
movie is strong enough to reward them both. That leaves Vanessa Kirby --
whose movie I didn't see, Carey Mulligan and Andra Day, who surprised
everyone by winning the Golden Globe for her performance as Billie
Holiday.
Will Win: Carey Mulligan. I think the
mediocre reception to the films of Kirby and Day, but not their
performances will cancel them out. And I think Mulligan may pull off an
upset here. She's universally viewed as the best part of a relatively
polarizing movie. And here's the thing, clearly the Oscar voters love
the movie because it made the Best Picture and Best Director races. This
may be the best and only place to reward it. I could be wrong -- and I
often am. But this is my wild card pick.
Should Win: Frances
McDormand. I wish she was winning for this instead of Three Billboards,
which is a movie that really left a bad taste in my mouth. But the best
performance is the best performance and her work in Nomadland was just
so moving and real. You're right about it almost playing like something
out of a silent movie. She's definitely operating on a level that few
actresses get to at this stage of their careers and I can't wait to see
her in her husband Joel Coen's upcoming adaptation of MacBeth, alongside
Denzel Washington.
Snubs: Elizabeth
Moss in The Invisible Man. She was never going to get a nomination for
such a commercial genre movie, but Moss has really been on a roll
playing bugged out people on the end of their rope (Her Smell) or
slightly possessed (Us) and i think she is so consistently underrated.
BW: Next up is Best Actor, which this year,
is the category that best exemplifies the highs and lows of caring about
these award shows. Overall, I think it's a very solid slate of
nominees with a major major missing piece. It feels like it's going to
be Chadwick Boseman's award to lose, and rightly so. His brilliance was
on full display from the moment he stepped on screen in Ma Rainey's
Black Bottom. A victory for him will be bittersweet because of the
excitement of him finally being rewarded for his craft and the harsh
reality that he is not here anymore. Going down the line, I love that
Riz Ahmed is nominated for Sound Of Metal. He totally owned that movie
and it's great to see him on this list. While I have not seen Minari,
I've heard nothing but good things about it and Steven Yeun's
performance. I thought Gary Oldman gave it his all in the uneven Mank,
and Hollywood loves to celebrate itself. This wasn't a surprising
nomination. I haven't seen The Father, but I feel like Anthony Hopkins
has reached Meryl Streep territory where he gets an obligatory
nomination every time he's in something of value. The biggest miss here
is obviously Delroy Lindo for his career defining performance in Da 5
Bloods. How he can be universally left out of this award season is
beyond me. I don't think I've been so captured by a performance in a
long time and for him to be left out entirely is almost insulting to the
other nominees. While it will be nice for them to win, it'd be like
winning the NBA title in the two years that Michael Jordan was playing
baseball. Like it's great to win, but you didn't beat the best
competition. Anyway, on to the nominees.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
Will Win: Boseman. Totally deserving. Totally brilliant performance. Totally devastating that he's gone. Wakanda Forever!
Should Win: Boseman will and should win. I also wouldn't be sad if Riz Ahmed takes home the prize.
Snub: Delroy Lindo. Is this the biggest acting snub of all-time? It has to be up there.
Who is your best actor?
AH: I agree that this is a MOSTLY strong slate of nominees, and yes, Chadwick
Boseman will be coronated on Oscar night -- and he's deserving. But
Delroy Lindo gave the performance of THE YEAR as far as I'm concerned.
So basically, this is the second year in a row where my favorite
performance of the year was snubbed (last year it was Lupita Nyong'o in
Us). Here's where I differ -- I don't think Anthony Hopkins has been
over-lauded in his career. This is his first nomination in over 20 years
(I believe) and based on everything I've heard, The Father is supposed
to be return his Remains of the Day level form. I haven't seen it yet,
so I'll reserve judgment but to me the glaring error here is Gary
Oldman, a very good but also problematic actor (it's strange to me that
his off-screen awfulness has been given a pass unlike so many others)
who is for me the thing that worked THE LEAST about Mank. I'll never
understand why Fincher felt Oldman needed to play someone 25 years
younger when there are many excellent age appropriate actors who could
have played the part just as well or better. His performance was very
one-note for me. But hey I know a lot of people who think Mank is a
masterpiece, so what do I know.
Riz Ahmed and Steven
Yeun were both amazing in their films and feel like they're going to
join folks like Michael B. Jordan in the pantheon of modern day leading
men -- all sex symbols, all unconventional stars -- all pretty fantastic
is almost everything they do, but ...
Will
Win: Chadwick Boseman would be and should be right beside him. It's hard
to know if his performance in Ma Rainey would have had quite the same
impact had it not had the mystique of having been his last performance.
The movie is good but I did feel like it failed to rise above feeling
like a filmed play at times. But Boseman was a singular talent.
Should win: Without
having seen the Hopkins performance, probably Boseman, although I
wouldn’t be mad if Yeun or Ahmed won for their less showy performances.
Snub: Delroy
Lindo. Full stop. I’d also say Sacha Baron Cohen for his remarkable
performance as Borat, but he’s getting recognized for The Trial of the Chicago 7, so I’m good with that.
BW: You know what, I was totally wrong about the number of nominations
Anthony Hopkins has received. I guess I just assumed he's been
nominated a million times. I stand corrected.
On
to Best Director... another category with some pleasant surprises and
some very noticeable absences. It's great that we have two women
nominated. Chloe Zhao seems like the favorite for Nomadland and, to me,
would be well-deserving of this award. And while we both agree that
Promising Young Woman was a good but flawed film, it's always exciting
to see another woman break into the boys club. Lee Isaac Chung did an
excellent job directing the universally praised Minari. The big
surprise in this category would be Thomas Vinterberg for his work on
Another Round. I have not seen this film, so I can't speak on it's
quality. I guess the big surprise is who he pushed off this list, and
I'll get to that in a bit. David Fincher is on here for Mank, which is
an Oscar-bait film celebrating the drama that occurred during the
production of arguably the greatest film of all-time, Citizen Kane.
It's definitely not his best work and we've touched on some of the flaws
of the film throughout our back-and-forth. I'm not surprised to see
him on this list, but it's a shame that he's here over a couple more
deserving directors. For me, this is an incomplete list and there's two
big-time snubs. The first being Spike Lee for his career-defining film
Da 5 Bloods. I know he's had his issues with the Academy for years and
that, deep-down, I think he secretly might enjoy his outsider status,
but to leave him off this list is criminal. Also, the fact that he's
only been nominated once for directing (BlacKkKlansman) is also
criminal. Another big-time snub would have to go to Regina King for the
phenomenal One Night In Miami. Whether it's because it was her debut
as a film director or the fact that it seemed like the Academy didn't
really reward stage to screen adaptations this year, she definitely got
screwed.
Anyway, on to the nominees.
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)
David Fincher (“Mank”)
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
Will
Win: Chloe Zhao. She seems to have the inside track to this award and
for good reason. It's well past due for another woman to join the boys
club.
Should Win: Zhao or Chung. Both did incredible jobs, and of the people on this list, both are well-deserving.
Snub:
Other than Spike Lee or Regina King, I'll go with Aaron Sorkin. I
wonder if he's thought of as "just a writer" and it'll take a few more
directorial efforts before he starts getting recognized. While The
Trial Of The Chicago 7 was very Sorkini-esque, and that could turn
people off, I still thought it was directed really well in a way that
kept the pace moving at just the right level.
Who's your best director?
AH: The Oscars diversity conversation is so maddening. It's always one step
forward, two steps back. That being said, it's hard not to be thrilled
by the presence of two women and two AAPI directors here (especially in
the wake of a spike in hate crimes directed at that community), It's
always been strange to me how every year a director is nominated whose
film is not in the Best Picture race (in this case Thomas Vinterberg)
while several filmmakers whose movies are get snubbed. The Spike Lee
omission is particularly infuriating, especially since Da 5 Bloods is
arguably an even more ambitious and powerful film than BlacKkKlansman
was. I am not a big fan of The Trial of the Chicago 7, but I still
thought Aaron Sorkin would make it because his stamp was all over that
movie. I also am surprised that One Night in Miami didn't get more love
for Regina King and appreciation overall. I too haven't seen Another
Round, but I hear great things. I also felt like Promising Young Woman
was exactly that 'promising' but it didn't really deliver for me until
its devastating last act. And Fincher -- well he's a classic auteur who
has several bonafide masterpieces to his name. His loss to Tom Hooper in
2010 (he was nominated for his era-defining The Social Network) is one
of the greatest Oscar missteps in recent memory. And yet, while I think
Mank is impeccably crafted and personal (Fincher's late father wrote it)
I just didn't get as engrossed with it as I did with most of his work.
Still, it's the most nominated film and if movies like Birdman are any
indication, Hollywood loves movies about show business.
Will
win: Chloe Zhao. I still think she is the favorite. I've never heard
any detractors of her film (although i could also say the same thing
about Lee Isaac Chung) and its such a unique vision that she deserves
much of the credit for the movie's success. I could see Fincher
upsetting if Mank ends up running the table. But you're right Zhao has
the momentum right now.
Should win: I loved
Minari slightly more than Nomadland, but just by a hair. So like you I'd
be happy with Chung or Zhao. But since only one woman has ever won Best
Director, which is insane, I supposed I'm rooting for Zhao.
Snub:
Again, we're on the exact same page. Spike Lee, who has truly returned
to form after about a decade of shaky work, really deserved to be
nominated and Regina King did a phenomenal job of taking what could have
been a claustrophobic adaptation of stage play and made an emotional
tour de force with four great, moving acting turns. I guess nominating
more than two people of color was a bridge too far for the Academy
Awards.
BW: On to the final category
of the night, Best Picture. Overall, this is a mixed bag of nominated
films. There's some very deserving nominees on this list and a couple
head scratchers, especially when compared to a couple films left off
this list. Again, it's nice to see a range of stories, people, and
cultures presented and a break away from #OscarsSoWhite, but I can't
help but feel slightly let down by this list. We've got some heavy
hitters on this list (Nomadland, Minari, The Sound Of Metal) who
absolutely belong at the top of this list. I think The Trial Of The
Chicago 7 is a film that belongs on this list, even if it's a slightly
over-the-top film at times. You've got a self-congratulatory film that
Hollywood loves to nominate in Mank, and some good but ultimately
lacking films (Judas And The Black Messiah, Promising Young Woman),
whose place on this list could and should be disputed. I haven't seen
The Father, so I'll reserve judgement for now. Overall, there's 8 out of
a possible 10 filmes on this list. That leaves us two empty slots that
could have potentially gone to Da 5 Bloods, One Night In Miami, and Ma
Rainey's Black Bottom. It seemed like, for whatever reason, they
weren't nominating stage-to-screen films, so that could be a reason for
the omission of One Night and Ma Rainey. I think it's a dumb reason,
but at least it's a reason. Both films were deserving to be on here and
both have a legitimate gripe with the Academy for being left off. Da 5
Bloods is the best film of the year by far, and to not have it
competing for the top prize is a shame... especially with a couple open
slots in the slate of nominated films. I know we keep harping on this
topic, but the Academy really dropped the ball with this one. I know
Nomadland or Minari are probably going to walk away with Best Picture,
and that's great, but it still feels like something is missing here. I
know each year I say I won't care about the nominations, and yet every
year I'm still annoyed. I know that art is subjective, and that they'll
never please everyone with these, but to leave out such a powerful film
is borderline insulting. Not only to us, but to the other nominees.
You want to face the best competition and the 99 Chicago Bulls are
sitting on the sidelines here.
Here's the nominees:
Best Picture
“The Father” (David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, producers)
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, producers)
“Mank” (Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, producers)
“Minari” (Christina Oh, producer)
“Nomadland” (Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, producers)
“Promising Young Woman” (Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, producers)
“Sound of Metal” (Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, producers)
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, producers)
Will
Win: Nomadland. It's a beautiful piece of art that's both timely and
timeless. They could play this movie in an art gallery without sound
and you would still be blown away by its beauty and sadness.
Should Win: Both Nomadland and Minari could and should win. I won't be angry if either film wins.
Snub:
Other than the 3 I've mentioned (Da 5 Bloods, One Night In Miami, Ma
Rainey's Black Bottom), I'll go with a couple comedy movies. I don't
think any film better captured 2020 than Borat 2. It has gotten some
love in some of the other award shows, so why not throw it in there?
Another film that I loved, but would never get nominated was Palm
Springs. It didn't break any new ground, but it did bring me a lot of
joy in a year when there wasn't a lot of that going around.
Which film takes home your top prize?
On
a final note, it looks like our 8th annual Oscar pick-a-palooza is
wrapping up. I look forward to doing this next year. Who knows...
maybe it'll be the year that they finally get everything right... lol.
AH: I agree with everything you said, so I am not sure what more I can
possibly add. I am surprised that 9 films didn't get enough voters to
make it in, especially when terrible movies like The Blind Side have in
recent years. The only explanation for the blatant omission of Da 5
Bloods from so many categories is that Oscar voters either didn't see it
or didn't like it. For shame, cause I think it'll have a lot more
staying power than a few of the films on this list. But to your point
there's nothing outrageous here. There's no Crash, Bohemian Rhapsody or
Green Book to make you want to bang your head against the wall, so
that's something. But really other than Minari and to a lesser extent
Nomadland and Sound of Metal, there are few movies here I feel really
passionate about either. Which probably means I'll be skipping watching
this year's awards show for the second year in a row, Last year's
Parasite win still feels like an outlier -- the rare great, unassailable
film that justly wins. But historically that just isn't what happens.
It's why movies like The Artist, The King's Speech and How Green Was My
Valley (which beat Ciitzen Kane!) are Best Picture winners and movies
like Do the Right Thing aren't even nominated. The Oscars are barely a
notch above the Grammys when it comes to irrelevancy. They reflect the
stodgy and safes impulses of an industry that purports to be progressive
but in many ways is deeply conservative. Ultimately this looks like it
will be a good year for diversity and women, and that's great, but as
far as I'm concerned, the damage is done by these awards and can't be
undone.
Will win: Nomadland. It's just a movie no one
I know has a problem with. It's also incredibly moving and beautifully
crafted. I think Minari is more enjoyable, but that is not a strike
against this movie that is clearly capturing a mood and a moment that
feels very relevant. The only think I could see upsetting it is Mank,
which to your point has the whole Hollywood industry thing that they
love and does have the most nominations. if it does win I do think it'll
be the most eyerolly result, especially because I just don't think that
film matters to anyone who isn't an Orson Welles fanboy.
Should
win: I agree with you again. Minari was my favorite of this bunch. But I
also thought Nomadland was fantastic and is equally deserving.
Snubs:
Da 5 Bloods obviously. I do wonder if traditional movie theaters were
open and if Lee's film had been given a proper release and been
successful would it have been ignored... we'll never know. Same goes for
One Night in Miami, which plays well enough at home but would have been
interesting to view with an audience. And as long as we're throwing
curveballs here I want to show some love for On the Rocks, a movie I
know you're less enthusiastic about, but for me was just a lovely love
letter to the city I love and a real return to form for Sofia Coppola.
Thanks
for doing this with me again Brian. I have zero faith in the Oscars,
but I always know i'll have a good back and forth with you. And congrats
on becoming a daddy again!
BW: Thanks!
That's it, folks. Tune in to the big night to see how we did in our predictions.